3 weeks ago
Motilal Oswal Sees 21% Upside in ONGC, Maintains Buy Rating
There is an Indian company called ONGC that finds oil and natural gas deep under the ground and under the sea.
Another company called Motilal Oswal studies big companies and tells people whether buying their shares is a good idea.
Motilal Oswal says ONGC's shares are a good buy, predicting they could go up by about 21% in price.
Last quarter, ONGC made a lot of money, even more than expected.
However, it produced a little less oil and gas than before, which is a small worry.
A newer source of gas from fresh wells is helping the company earn extra money.
ONGC is also drilling a new exploratory well in the deep sea through a project called Samudra Manthan.
One part of the company, called OPaL, is still losing money, which Motilal Oswal says is a concern.
Overall, the expert firm believes ONGC is a good deal, but buying shares still has risks and prices can go up or down.
Motilal Oswal maintained a 'Buy' rating on ONGC with a target price of Rs 290, implying roughly 21% upside from the current market price.
ONGC's Q1FY27 standalone revenue was around Rs 46,500 crore, broadly in line with estimates, though crude oil and gas sales came in about 9% and 8% below expectations respectively.
Profitability beat estimates, with operating earnings of nearly Rs 29,500 crore and adjusted profit after tax of around Rs 17,000 crore.
New Well Gas (NWG) contribution rose to 24% of volumes in Q1FY27 (vs 17% in FY26), generating about Rs 4,000 crore in revenue and Rs 1,900 crore of additional realisation over APM pricing.
Production remains under pressure from reservoir-related issues and project shutdowns, management guided flat FY27 volumes, and OPaL reported another quarterly loss on higher feedstock costs.
- Who
- Motilal Oswal, the brokerage issuing the 'Buy' rating, and ONGC, the Indian oil and gas public sector company.
- What
- Motilal Oswal maintained its 'Buy' rating on ONGC with a Rs 290 target price, implying about 21% upside, citing better-than-expected Q1FY27 profitability and rising New Well Gas contribution.
- Where
- India, including ONGC's deep-water exploration in the Mahanadi block under the Samudra Manthan initiative.
- When
- Fresh report following ONGC's Q1FY27 earnings, with the stock's intraday decline noted in the latest trading session.
- Why
- The brokerage is bullish because profitability beat estimates, New Well Gas volumes are rising, ONGC Videsh earnings improved, and the stock trades below its long-term average P/E.
Bullish View
Bearish Concerns
Stock outlook
Bullish View
Motilal Oswal expects about 21% upside to Rs 290, arguing ONGC is undervalued at 5.7x FY28E consolidated P/E versus its long-term average of 6.4x, with the core business pricing in a much lower crude oil assumption than current conditions suggest.
Bearish Concerns
Crude oil and gas production are declining due to reservoir-related issues and project shutdowns, management has guided for flat YoY standalone volumes in FY27, and OPaL continues to post quarterly losses due to higher feedstock costs.
Key facts
- Brokerage
- Motilal Oswal
- Rating
- Buy (maintained)
- Target Price
- Rs 290
- Upside Potential
- ~21%
- Q1FY27 Standalone Revenue
- ~Rs 46,500 crore
- Q1FY27 Adjusted PAT
- ~Rs 17,000 crore
- New Well Gas Volume Share
- 24% in Q1FY27 vs 17% in FY26
- Market Capitalisation
- ~Rs 2.98 lakh crore
Quotes
Motilal Oswal analyst
Analyst from the brokerage firm Motilal Oswal
“New well gas contribution continues to increase, with volume share rising to 24% in Q1FY27 (vs. 17% in FY26).”
financialexpress.com
“OVL reported PAT of 2,940 crore in the last 2 quarters vs. 1,220 crore in FY26.”
financialexpress.com








