Archive · 10 Nov 2025
India's Retail Inflation Projected to Hit Record Low in October
Imagine the prices of things you buy at the store are going down a lot, the lowest they've ever been in a while!
This is expected to happen in October in India.
It's because the prices of food, especially vegetables, have become much cheaper.
Also, last year, prices went up a lot, so this year's prices look even lower by comparison.
Some taxes were also reduced, which helped lower prices.
However, some people are worried because the prices of things like gold have gone up, which might make other prices increase later.
Experts think this low price period won't last long, and prices might start going up again soon.
Because of this, they don't expect the central bank to cut interest rates many times.
India's retail inflation is projected to reach a record low of 0.3% in October, according to a Mint poll of 16 economists.
This projected low is attributed to sustained food deflation, a favorable base effect from the previous year, and the impact of GST cuts.
If accurate, this will be the lowest inflation print since January 2014 under the current measurement series.
Economists, however, warn of potentially rising core inflation, driven by a rally in gold prices.
The current low inflation is expected to be a temporary trough, with inflation likely to resume a gradual increase in the coming months.
- Who
- 16 economists polled by Mint
- What
- India's retail inflation is projected to hit a record low of 0.3% in October.
- When
- October
- Where
- India
- Why
- Driven by food deflation, a favorable base effect, and GST cuts.
Potential Concerns and Future Outlook
Factors Driving Record Low Inflation
Core Inflation and Future Trajectory
Potential Concerns and Future Outlook
Economists warn about high core inflation, potentially rising to 4.5-4.7% in October, largely due to a sharp rally in gold prices. They expect October to be the trough, with inflation resuming a gradual climb in coming months due to factors like unseasonal rains affecting perishables and increased import duties on pulses, suggesting the bulk of food disinflation is over.
Factors Driving Record Low Inflation
Retail inflation is projected to hit a record low of 0.3% in October, falling within the 0.16% to 0.58% range predicted by economists. This is driven by continued food deflation, a favorable base effect from higher inflation in October of the previous year, and the impact of goods and services tax (GST) cuts.
Monetary Policy Implications
Potential Concerns and Future Outlook
Given the expected reversal of the inflation trajectory and potential undershooting of the RBI's forecasts, economists anticipate limited further monetary policy space for supporting growth, with potentially only one rate cut in the near term.
Factors Driving Record Low Inflation
The record low inflation, falling below the RBI's 2-6% band for the third time in four months, is driven by significant year-on-year drops in vegetable prices and deeper deflation in food and beverages.
- Projected Retail Inflation (October)
- 0.3%
- Projected Inflation Range
- 0.16% - 0.58%
- Previous Year's Inflation (October)
- 6.2%
- Projected Core Inflation (October)
- 4.5% - 4.7%
- RBI Inflation Band
- 2% - 6%
Sources
Per plate food cost see sharp drop in October as onion, tomato, pulse prices tumbled: Crisil
October retail inflation at series low of 0.5% : FE poll
Cooling retail inflation drives India's home cooked thali prices down in October, vegetarian meals down by 17%
