Archive · 14 Sep 2026
Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro Neck-and-Neck in Brazil Runoff Polls
Brazil is preparing to vote for president.
Two surveys asked people who they would choose if the election reached a final two-person contest.
One survey put Lula slightly ahead, while the other put Flavio Bolsonaro slightly ahead.
Because the differences were within the surveys' margins of error, the candidates were statistically tied.
Lula led Bolsonaro in both surveys when voters were asked about the first round.
The first round is planned for October 4.
If nobody gets more than half of the valid votes, the top two candidates will compete again on October 25.
Bolsonaro's recent polling strength also helped Brazilian financial assets rise because he is viewed as more friendly to markets.
Two polls found President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a potential runoff.
BTG Pactual/Nexus gave Lula a 47%-46% lead over Bolsonaro, reversing the previous week's result.
Quaest showed Bolsonaro ahead of Lula by 42% to 40%, after a 41%-41% tie in its prior poll.
In first-round scenarios, Lula led Bolsonaro in both surveys, with 42% to 37% in Nexus and 36% to 31% in Quaest.
Brazil's first round is scheduled for October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes.
- Who
- President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are the leading candidates discussed in the polls.
- What
- Two polls showed the candidates statistically tied in a potential presidential runoff, while Lula led in first-round voting.
- When
- The polls were conducted from September 10 to 13 and released on Monday; the first round is scheduled for October 4 and the runoff for October 25.
- Where
- Brazil, with reporting from Sao Paulo.
- Why
- The surveys measured voter preferences ahead of Brazil's presidential election and assessed whether a runoff would be necessary.
Lula
Flavio Bolsonaro
Potential runoff lead
Lula
The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Lula narrowly ahead, 47% to 46%.
Flavio Bolsonaro
The Quaest poll showed Flavio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead, 42% to 40%.
First-round support
Lula
Lula led in both first-round scenarios, receiving 42% in Nexus and 36% in Quaest.
Flavio Bolsonaro
Bolsonaro ranked second in both first-round scenarios, with 37% in Nexus and 31% in Quaest.
Recent momentum
Lula
Lula regained a narrow lead in the Nexus runoff survey after trailing the previous week.
Flavio Bolsonaro
Bolsonaro had led the previous Nexus runoff poll and was numerically ahead in the latest Quaest survey.
- Nexus runoff result
- Lula led Flavio Bolsonaro 47% to 46%.
- Quaest runoff result
- Flavio Bolsonaro led Lula 42% to 40%.
- Nexus first round
- Lula 42%, Bolsonaro 37%, Augusto Cury 6%, Ronaldo Caiado 5%, and Renan Santos 2%.
- Quaest first round
- Lula 36%, Bolsonaro 31%, Augusto Cury 7%, Ronaldo Caiado 4%, and Renan Santos 4%.
- Nexus sample
- 2,003 people surveyed from September 11 to 13; margin of error was 2 percentage points.
- Quaest sample
- 2,004 people surveyed from September 10 to 13; margin of error was 2 percentage points.
- Election schedule
- The first round is October 4, and a runoff is scheduled for October 25 if no candidate exceeds 50% of valid votes.