Archive · 16 Jan 2026
UBS: Midcap Valuations Near 5-Year Averages
UBS and Morgan Stanley, two big investment companies, recently shared their thoughts on the stock market.
UBS said that mid-sized company stocks, called midcaps, went down a bit in 2025 but are still more expensive than the average and larger company stocks.
They think that money flowing into these stocks has been helping them, but if that stops, it could be a problem.
They like to pick stocks based on specific sectors.
UBS looked at 20 different areas and found that most are priced similarly to their long-term averages.
Some areas like home improvement and hospitality are cheaper, while others like capital markets are a bit more expensive.
They think it's a good idea to pick stocks carefully in these sectors.
Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, said the stock market is approaching the Union Budget 2026 with scepticism.
They think there could be both ups and downs in the market after the budget.
They also said that the government is likely to focus on spending on things like infrastructure and social projects, which could help create jobs and improve the economy.
Both companies are optimistic about certain sectors but have different views on the overall market.
Midcap valuations down 10% in 2025 but still above 5-year average and Nifty
Fund flows into SMID funds up 37% year-on-year in 2025
Home improvement and hospitality sectors trading below long-term averages
Diagnostics and chemicals sectors near long-term averages with mixed performance
Capital markets sector slightly above long-term average due to strong exchange performance
- Who
- UBS and Morgan Stanley
- What
- Report on midcap valuations, sector preferences, and Union Budget 2026 expectations
- When
- 2025 and 2026
- Where
- Global markets, with focus on India
- Why
- To provide investment insights, sector analysis, and budget impact assessment
Optimistic View
Skeptical View
Market Performance
Optimistic View
UBS highlights that midcap valuations are still above the 5-year average and Nifty, indicating potential for growth.
Skeptical View
Morgan Stanley notes that the stock market is approaching the Union Budget 2026 with scepticism, anticipating volatility and upside risk post-budget.
Sector Preferences
Optimistic View
UBS prefers financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials, with specific sector analysis showing varied performance.
Skeptical View
Morgan Stanley is also overweight on financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials, but emphasizes the need for capital market reforms to revive foreign portfolio flows.
- Midcap Index Valuation
- Down 10% in 2025, still above 5-year average and Nifty
- Fund Flows
- Up 37% year-on-year in 2025
- Home Improvement Segment
- Trading at 15% discount to long-term average
- Hospitality Sector
- Trading 15% below 5-year average
- Diagnostics Sector
- Close to long-term averages, mixed performance
- Chemicals Segment
- Near long-term averages, varied company performance
- Capital Markets
- Slightly above long-term average, driven by exchanges
- Fiscal Deficit
- Expected to be 4.2% of GDP in FY27
- Capex Growth
- Expected to grow around 11% YoY, with defence sector capex growing 12-15% and core infrastructure capex growing 8-10%
- Capex to GDP
- Likely to remain steady at 3.1% in FY27