Archive · 28 Jun 2025
Japan Faces Elevated Risk of Megaquake in Next 30 Years
Scientists in Japan have estimated a chance that a very big earthquake might hit central Japan in the next 30 years.
They've looked at 23 different areas where earthquakes could happen, especially off the coasts of some regions.
Some areas have a higher chance than others.
The scientists are advising people to get their homes ready for an earthquake, such as making them strong and securing furniture so it doesn't fall.
The recent big earthquake in the Noto Peninsula is less likely to happen again soon in the same place, but could happen in another location.
It's a reminder to be prepared.
A Japanese government panel forecasts a 16-18% probability of a megaquake in central Japan within 30 years.
The prediction covers 23 active faults and fault zones, especially off the coasts of the Kinki and Hokuriku regions.
The probability of a magnitude 7.0 or higher quake along western faults is 4-6%, while eastern faults have a 12-14% chance.
The fault zone north of the Noto Peninsula, site of the 2024 quake, has a near-zero percent chance of triggering another major quake in the next 30 years.
Experts urge residents to take earthquake-resistant measures, including securing furniture.
- Who
- Japan’s Earthquake Research Committee.
- What
- A Japanese government panel predicted the likelihood of a megaquake.
- When
- Within the next 30 years.
- Where
- Central Japan, specifically off the coasts of the Kinki and Hokuriku regions, and potentially within 23 active faults and fault zones.
- Why
- To assess and inform the public about the risk of future earthquakes and encourage preparedness.
General Public
Risk-tolerant individuals
Personal Risk Perception
General Public
Concern about safety.
Risk-tolerant individuals
Acceptance of risks as part of life in Japan.
- Prediction
- 16-18% chance of a megaquake within 30 years
- Areas of Concern
- 23 active faults and fault zones
- Western Fault Probability
- 4-6% for magnitude 7.0+ earthquake
- Eastern Fault Probability
- 12-14% for magnitude 7.0+ earthquake
- Noto Peninsula (North) Probability
- Near-zero percent for another major quake in next 30 years
- Expert's Advice
- Make homes earthquake-resistant and secure furniture