Archive · 10 Oct 2026
India’s Growth Keeps Outpacing Forecasts Amid Economic Turmoil
The Reserve Bank of India has raised its estimate for how quickly India’s economy will grow this financial year.
Its estimate changed several times during the year.
The article compares economists’ predictions with how much the economy actually grew.
For many years up to FY22, growth was often lower than economists had predicted.
Since FY23, actual growth has more often been higher than predicted.
One economist says experts have become more careful because of wars, oil problems, tariffs, and other uncertainty.
The article also points to FY17, when actual growth was higher than a late-year forecast despite demonetisation.
Forecasts can change, so the final growth result is not yet known.
The Reserve Bank of India raised its GDP growth forecast for the current financial year to 7.1%, up 0.4 percentage points.
The RBI’s forecast changed from 6.9% in April to 6.6% in June, 6.7% in August, and 7.1% in its latest review.
A review of professional forecasts found actual GVA growth was mostly below forecasts through FY22, but has more often exceeded them since FY23.
Bank of Baroda chief economist Madan Sabnavis said forecasters have become more cautious amid geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty.
For FY17, the March 2017 median forecast was 6.7%, while actual GVA growth was 8%; the article also notes the November 2016 demonetisation.
- Who
- The Reserve Bank of India and economists surveyed by it; the article quotes Madan Sabnavis of Bank of Baroda.
- What
- The RBI raised its current-year GDP growth forecast to 7.1%, while an analysis finds actual GVA growth has often exceeded forecasts since FY23.
- When
- The latest monetary policy review concluded this week; the article also examines forecasts and actual growth from FY17 onward.
- Where
- India.
- Why
- The RBI cited the economy’s resilience; the article says forecasters have tended to be more cautious amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
- Latest RBI GDP forecast
- 7.1% for the current financial year, 40 basis points higher than the previous forecast.
- Forecast revisions
- 6.9% in April, 6.6% in June, 6.7% in August, and 7.1% in the latest review.
- RBI forecaster survey
- Conducted every two months since September 2007; the latest round included 46 economists.
- Comparison measure
- The analysis compares March median forecasts for real GVA growth with actual growth.
- Forecast pattern
- Actual GVA growth was mostly below forecasts through FY22 and has more often been above them since FY23.
- FY17 figures
- The March 2017 median forecast was 6.7%; actual GVA growth was 8%.
- Forecasting explanation
- Madan Sabnavis said forecasters have become more conservative amid turmoil since 2022.