Archive · 14 Nov 2025
Nitish Kumar Remains Bihar's Indispensable X-Factor Despite Predictions
People often say that Nitish Kumar, a politician in Bihar, is too old or makes too many decisions and that he won't win elections anymore.
But every time there's an election, he keeps winning!
He gets about 15-20% of the votes all by himself, which is a lot in Bihar.
Many different groups of people trust him, like farmers, lower castes, and even many Muslims.
He's especially popular with women because his government gave girls bikes to go to school, gave money to women, and made a rule against drinking alcohol, which many women liked.
Because of this, when women vote more, his party usually wins more seats.
Even when people tried to stop him, like in the 2020 election or the 2024 Lok Sabha election, he and his party still did very well.
So, even though people predict he will lose, Nitish Kumar is still a very important 'X-factor' in Bihar's politics.
Commentators frequently underestimate Nitish Kumar's political resilience, predicting his decline before elections.
Kumar maintains a consistent 15-20% vote share, making him a crucial ally in Bihar's coalition politics.
He holds credibility across diverse social groups, including OBCs, EBCs, Mahadalits, and a segment of Muslim voters.
Policies focused on women, such as educational initiatives, financial aid, and prohibition, have built a strong female voter base.
Nitish Kumar's alliances have historically performed well, particularly in seats with higher female voter turnout, and he has demonstrated strong comeback abilities in recent elections.
- Who
- Nitish Kumar
- What
- His consistent electoral success and political indispensability in Bihar politics, defying predictions of his decline.
- When
- Ahead of nearly every election, reinforced by recent 2025 election results and 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
- Where
- Bihar
- Why
- He commands a significant independent vote share, maintains trust across diverse social and religious groups, and has cultivated strong support among women through impactful policies. His ability to form winning coalitions and his comeback capabilities are also key factors.
Commentators Predicting Nitish Kumar's Decline
Supporters and Analysts Highlighting Nitish Kumar's Resilience
Electoral Viability
Commentators Predicting Nitish Kumar's Decline
Commentators often predict Nitish Kumar's political decline, labeling him indecisive, fatigued, or overextended.
Supporters and Analysts Highlighting Nitish Kumar's Resilience
Nitish Kumar consistently commands a 15-20% vote share, making him indispensable in Bihar's fragmented political landscape and a key ally for winning coalitions.
Voter Trust and Support Base
Commentators Predicting Nitish Kumar's Decline
His political decisions are sometimes questioned, and he may be seen as past his peak.
Supporters and Analysts Highlighting Nitish Kumar's Resilience
Kumar retains credibility among a broad social coalition including OBCs, EBCs, Mahadalits, non-Yadav OBCs, and a significant section of Muslim voters.
Influence of Women Voters
Commentators Predicting Nitish Kumar's Decline
His policies may be seen as less impactful or his strategies as flawed.
Supporters and Analysts Highlighting Nitish Kumar's Resilience
Women voters are a strong pillar of support due to policies like the cycle scheme, scholarships, direct financial aid, and prohibition, which have created substantial goodwill and a dependable vote bank.
- Nitish Kumar's Vote Share
- Consistently commands 15-20%
- Key Voter Groups
- OBCs, EBCs, Mahadalits, non-Yadav OBCs, Muslim voters, Women
- Key Policies Benefiting Women
- Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojana, Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, Jivika Didi programme, Alcohol Prohibition
- 2020 Election Performance (NDA Seats in Female-Outvoted Seats)
- 72 out of 119 seats (60% strike rate)
- 2024 Lok Sabha Performance (JD-U Seats)
- 12 out of 16 seats
- Author
- Amitabh Tiwari (Political Strategist)
Sources
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