Archive · 12 Oct 2026
RBI Curbs May Support Rupee as Depreciation Pressures Persist
The rupee is India's money, and it may get some support from steps taken by the Reserve Bank of India.
But an economist says it could still lose value over time.
She points to high US Treasury yields and oil costing $100 as reasons.
She expects the rupee to be between 96.50 and 97 by the end of March.
A weaker rupee makes goods bought from other countries cost more.
That can push prices up and make things harder for families and businesses.
India imports about 90% of the crude oil it uses, so expensive oil can add to the pressure.
The rupee may rebound as the Reserve Bank of India takes stronger measures to support it.
Economist Gaura Sengupta says medium-term depreciation pressures remain.
Sengupta cited high US Treasury yields and crude oil at $100 as factors behind continued weakness.
She expects the rupee to trade between 96.50 and 97 by the end of March.
A weaker rupee raises import costs and inflation risks; India imports about 90% of its crude oil.
- Who
- The Reserve Bank of India and economist Gaura Sengupta of IDFC FIRST Bank.
- What
- RBI measures may support the rupee, though medium-term depreciation pressure is expected to continue.
- When
- Over the medium term; Sengupta expects a rate of 96.50–97 by the end of March.
- Where
- India.
- Why
- High US Treasury yields and crude oil at $100 are cited as pressures on the rupee; RBI measures may soften the pace of depreciation.
RBI measures may support the rupee
Underlying pressures may keep it weakening
Effect of RBI action
RBI measures may support the rupee
Stronger RBI measures may support the rupee and soften the pace of depreciation.
Underlying pressures may keep it weakening
The cited pressures behind depreciation have not changed, so the rupee is still expected to weaken over the medium term.
- Rupee outlook
- Possible rebound on RBI measures, but depreciation pressure is expected to persist.
- Forecast
- 96.50–97 by the end of March, according to Gaura Sengupta.
- Factors cited
- Multi-year high US Treasury yields and crude oil at $100.
- India's crude oil imports
- About 90% of its crude oil requirements.
- Potential impact
- A weaker rupee makes imports more expensive, adding to inflation pressure and raising business input costs.