Archive · 20 Nov 2025
Fed Officials Divided Over December Rate Cut Amid Economic Uncertainty
Some people in charge of setting interest rates in the US are arguing about whether to lower them in December.
Some think we should worry more about prices going up too fast, while others think we should focus on not enough jobs being created.
They're having this argument because there are many things making the economy hard to understand right now, like new rules about who can come to the US and how much things cost because of new taxes.
They can't agree because they don't have all the information they need, like how many jobs were created last month, because the government shut down.
Now, people who bet on what the Fed will do think there's a 50% chance they'll lower interest rates in December, which is much less than they thought a month ago.
Sharp disagreements among Federal Reserve officials over the economy's health and inflation vs. hiring concerns
Uncertainty brought about by factors like tariffs, AI, immigration, and tax policies
Odds of a December rate cut now 50-50, down from nearly 94% a month ago
Some officials worry about persistent inflation, while others focus on weak hiring
Government shutdown interrupted economic data, complicating the Fed's 'data dependent' approach
- Who
- Federal Reserve officials
- What
- Disagreeing over a potential interest rate cut in December
- When
- In recent speeches and the upcoming December 9-10 meeting
- Where
- At the Federal Reserve
- Why
- Due to uncertainty about the economy's health and inflation vs. hiring concerns
Inflation Concerns
Hiring Concerns
Inflation Persistence
Inflation Concerns
Inflation has been above target for five years
Hiring Concerns
Public doesn't seem worried about long-term inflation
Tariff Impact
Inflation Concerns
Tariffs are a significant factor in rising prices
Hiring Concerns
Tariffs' effect on inflation is relatively small and not persistent
- Current interest rate
- About 3.9%
- Odds of a December rate cut
- 50-50
- Last jobs report date
- August 2019
- Expected September jobs gain
- 50,000 jobs
- Expected unemployment rate
- 4.3%