Archive · 23 Sep 2026
Goldman Expects China Oil Imports To Stay Subdued Fourth Quarter
Goldman Sachs thinks China will not buy much more oil soon.
It expects China’s oil imports to rise only a little in the fourth quarter.
The increase may be about 600,000 barrels each day compared with the previous three months.
Imports could still be much lower than they were a year earlier.
High oil prices may make China less willing to buy more.
Some investors expected China to buy much more oil and push prices higher.
Goldman says that large increase is unlikely.
Oil prices have already risen because of disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz.
The bank says bigger attacks on Middle East oil facilities could create a stronger price increase.
Goldman Sachs expects China’s oil imports to rise only moderately in the fourth quarter.
Imports are forecast to increase by about 600,000 barrels a day from the previous quarter.
Fourth-quarter imports could remain 3 million barrels a day below the same period last year.
Goldman says higher crude prices may limit China’s purchases and cap further oil-price gains.
The bank identifies possible strikes on Middle East oil infrastructure as the main upside risk to its crude-price forecast.
- Who
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and its analysts assessed China’s oil-import outlook.
- What
- China’s oil imports are expected to remain subdued, rising only moderately in the fourth quarter.
- When
- The forecast covers the coming months and the fourth quarter; Brent has risen since late February.
- Where
- China, with global oil-market effects linked to the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East infrastructure.
- Why
- Elevated crude prices may restrain Chinese purchases, while disruptions to Middle East production and exports remain an upside risk to oil prices.
- Expected fourth-quarter import increase
- About 600,000 barrels a day from the previous three months.
- Year-on-year comparison
- Fourth-quarter imports are forecast to be 3 million barrels a day lower than a year earlier.
- Brent performance
- Brent is up around 36% since the start of the US-Iran war in late February.
- Main price constraint
- Slower Chinese imports have helped prevent steeper gains in oil prices.
- Main upside risk
- An escalation of strikes on Middle East crude-production and export infrastructure.
- Estimated price sensitivity
- A sustained 1 million-barrel-a-day change in China’s net crude imports over six months could shift Brent’s estimated fair value by about $4 a barrel.
- Possible downside scenario
- Brent could edge lower if Chinese buying remains broadly unchanged and the Middle East war does not escalate.