Archive · 8 Oct 2026
Bernstein Upgrades IEX as Market Coupling Delays Ease Pressure
Bernstein is a financial research firm that changed its view of Indian Energy Exchange, or IEX.
It moved its rating from Underperform to Market-Perform, meaning it now sees less reason to expect the share price to do poorly.
The firm says a new system called market coupling will probably take longer to start than it previously thought.
Legal challenges and technical work are among the reasons for the delay.
That gives IEX more time before its market share and fees may face pressure.
Bernstein still expects those pressures to happen eventually.
It also says power shortages may make it harder for IEX to trade more electricity in the next few months.
New ways of buying and selling power could help exchanges grow over the longer term.
Bernstein upgraded Indian Energy Exchange to Market-Perform from Underperform, while cutting its target price to Rs 110 from Rs 115.
The brokerage now expects day-ahead market coupling by the end of FY28 and real-time market coupling by the end of FY29.
Bernstein cited legal challenges and operational work, including software alignment and cross-exchange trade clearing, as reasons for the delay.
It cut its FY27 volume growth forecast, excluding renewable energy certificates, to 14% from 19%, citing tight power supply and weak hydro generation.
Bernstein still expects coupling and lower transaction charges to weigh on IEX over time, while new market-based products could support long-term exchange volumes.
- Who
- Bernstein and Indian Energy Exchange Ltd. (IEX).
- What
- Bernstein upgraded IEX to Market-Perform, lowered its target price, and delayed its expected market-coupling timeline.
- When
- The revised forecasts cover FY27 through FY32; Bernstein expects day-ahead coupling by the end of FY28 and real-time coupling by the end of FY29.
- Where
- India.
- Why
- Bernstein expects legal and operational hurdles to delay coupling, reducing near-term pressure, while power supply constraints weigh on near-term exchange volumes.
Near-term support
Long-term risks
Delayed market coupling
Near-term support
Bernstein says legal challenges and operational hurdles push back coupling and give IEX more time before pressure on market share and charges.
Long-term risks
Bernstein still considers market coupling inevitable and expects it eventually to reduce IEX's market share and transaction charges.
Transaction charges
Near-term support
The immediate risk of a charge reduction is lower because Bernstein expects the regulator to wait until market coupling is implemented.
Long-term risks
Bernstein considers current charges unsustainable and expects them to decline over time.
Exchange volume outlook
Near-term support
Virtual Power Purchase Agreements and a pilot Contract for Difference product could help exchanges gain share over the long term.
Long-term risks
Near-term volumes may remain soft because tight power supply limits surplus electricity available for trading.
- Revised rating
- Market-Perform, upgraded from Underperform
- Target price
- Rs 110, down from Rs 115; the report says this implies 5% upside
- Day-ahead market coupling
- Expected by the end of FY28, revised from early FY28
- Real-time market coupling
- Expected by the end of FY29
- FY27 volume growth estimate
- 14%, excluding renewable energy certificates, down from 19%
- Long-term transaction charge assumption
- 3 paise per unit by FY32
- Long-term exchange share outlook
- Bernstein expects power exchanges to reach 20–25% of India's power traded