Archive · 20 Jul 2026
Global Food and Fuel Reserves Provide Stability Amid Conflicts
The world is facing a big challenge with the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which has disrupted a lot of oil supplies.
To keep prices stable, countries have released some of their emergency oil reserves.
This has helped keep oil prices from skyrocketing, similar to what happened in 2022 or 2008.
Additionally, there are plenty of food supplies available globally, thanks to record harvests.
This means there's a buffer to handle any potential disruptions, like those caused by El Niño.
However, it's important to note that these buffers are not unlimited and could run out if the disruptions continue.
The situation is better than in 2022 when the world was still recovering from COVID-19 and faced food inflation due to inadequate buffers.
The West Asia conflict has caused the largest oil shock in history, affecting a fifth of the world’s supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
Global crude prices have been stabilized by the release of 426 million barrels from emergency stockpiles by IEA member countries.
Oil prices ranged from $90-110 per barrel in April-May and eased to $70-80 by mid-June.
India holds significant food reserves, including 121.7 million tonnes of rice and wheat, and 4 million tonnes of pulses.
Global food supplies are ample due to record harvests in 2025-26, providing a cushion against potential El Niño-induced disruptions.
- Who
- Global markets, International Energy Agency (IEA), Food Corporation of India
- What
- Release of emergency oil stockpiles and ample food supplies to stabilize markets.
- When
- Ongoing West Asia conflict, March 11 oil release, 2025-26 record harvests.
- Where
- Global, with specific focus on India and the Strait of Hormuz.
- Why
- To mitigate the impact of the largest oil shock in history and ensure food security.
Optimistic View
Pessimistic View
Buffer Stocks
Optimistic View
Buffer stocks of food and fuel provide a cushion against potential disruptions, ensuring stability in global markets.
Pessimistic View
Buffer stocks are depleting and may not be sufficient to handle prolonged disruptions, leading to potential shortages and price volatility.
- Oil Shock
- Largest in history, affecting a fifth of the world’s supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Oil Price Range
- $90-110 per barrel in April-May, eased to $70-80 by mid-June.
- Emergency Oil Release
- 426 million barrels released by IEA member countries over four months.
- Food Stocks
- India holds 121.7 million tonnes of rice and wheat, 4 million tonnes of pulses.
- Global Food Supplies
- Record harvests in 2025-26 for wheat, rice, corn, sugar, soyabean, palm oil, and rapeseed.
- El Niño Impact
- Potential production disruptions due to El Niño.
- 2022-2024 Context
- Inadequate buffers during Russia-Ukraine war and 2023-24 El Niño led to food inflation.