Archive · 16 Sep 2026
US Fed Weighs First Rate Hike Since 2023 Amid Inflation
The Federal Reserve is meeting to decide whether to change US interest rates.
The meeting started on September 15 and ends on September 16, 2026.
The decision is scheduled for 11:30 p.m.
in India, or 18:00 GMT.
Kevin Warsh is expected to speak after the announcement.
Investors think the Fed will raise rates by 0.25 percentage points.
That would move the target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4%.
It would also be the first Fed rate increase since 2023.
Officials have been watching inflation, higher energy prices and tariff effects.
The reports say the decision could affect currencies, investments, bonds, gold and Indian markets, but they do not yet give the final outcome.
The two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting began on September 15 and concludes on September 16, 2026.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest-rate decision at 18:00 GMT, or 11:30 p.m. Indian Standard Time.
Markets are largely pricing in a 25-basis-point increase, raising the federal funds target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4%.
The Federal Reserve has held rates steady since January 2026 while assessing inflation, energy-price shocks and tariff effects.
The CME FedWatch tool, cited by AFP, put the probability of a hike above 92%; the articles do not report the final decision yet.
- Who
- The Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and global financial-market participants.
- What
- A decision on whether to raise US interest rates, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point increase.
- When
- The meeting runs from September 15 to September 16, 2026; the decision is scheduled for 18:00 GMT, or 11:30 p.m. Indian Standard Time, with Warsh’s media briefing expected at 12:00 a.m. IST.
- Where
- The decision is being issued by the United States Federal Reserve; no physical meeting location is specified.
- Why
- The committee is assessing persistent inflation, renewed energy-price pressures and the effects of tariffs, while markets are watching the future direction of interest rates.
Arguments for waiting or a limited move
Arguments for raising rates
Policy timing
Arguments for waiting or a limited move
The Federal Reserve has held rates steady to gauge energy-price shocks and allow tariff effects to ripple through the economy.
Arguments for raising rates
Persistent inflation, renewed energy-price pressures and a previous dissent by three voting members support an immediate increase.
Scale and future path
Arguments for waiting or a limited move
Investors are watching whether any hike is a one-off move, suggesting that officials may avoid signaling a broader tightening cycle without more evidence.
Arguments for raising rates
Markets are largely pricing in a 25-basis-point increase and will examine Kevin Warsh’s guidance for signs that further rate moves may follow.
Market implications
Arguments for waiting or a limited move
Changes in global rate expectations could pressure emerging-market currencies and capital flows, creating reasons for caution about faster tightening.
Arguments for raising rates
A rate increase could address inflation concerns and reflect the Federal Reserve’s assessment that price pressures remain persistent.
- Meeting dates
- September 15-16, 2026
- Decision time
- 18:00 GMT, or 11:30 p.m. Indian Standard Time
- Expected move
- A 25-basis-point interest-rate increase
- Projected target range
- 3.75%-4%, up from 3.50%-3.75%
- Inflation data
- US consumer prices rose 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in August; core CPI rose 2.4% annually and 0.3% month-on-month
- Market probability
- More than 92% for a hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool cited by AFP
- Current policy
- Rates have been held steady since January 2026
