Archive · 2 Dec 2025
Markets brace for December with key events
Markets are getting ready for December with some big things happening.
Alphabet, the company that owns Google, is doing really well because of its AI work.
In Japan, the government is selling bonds, and the yen is getting weaker.
There's also talk about ending the war in Ukraine, and OPEC has decided to keep oil production the same.
Some AI stocks are doing better than others, but experts think that in the long run, AI will help the economy grow without causing too much inflation.
Overall, markets seem to be in a better place than they were at the start of the year, and people are hoping for a good end to 2025.
Alphabet's stock is up nearly 70% year-to-date, benefiting from strong cloud business and AI model Gemini.
Japan's debt auctions and central bank speeches are in focus as JGB yields hit multi-year highs and the yen weakens.
U.S. President Donald Trump's peace plan for Ukraine has spurred diplomacy and market reactions.
OPEC agreed to keep oil output levels unchanged through Q1 2026, citing fears of oversupply.
Markets are more stable heading into December, with the S&P 500 showing resilience, but AI stocks show divergence in performance.
- Who
- Alphabet, Japan's central bank, OPEC, U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukraine, Russia, AI-focused companies (Nvidia, Microsoft, etc.)
- What
- Market developments, AI investments, debt auctions, oil output decisions, peace negotiations, AI stock performance
- When
- December 2025, with key events in the coming week
- Where
- Global markets, including Tokyo, New York, and London
- Why
- To assess market trends, economic policies, geopolitical developments, and AI stock performance
Optimists
Pessimists
AI Stock Performance
Optimists
AI investments will boost future earnings and productivity, despite short-term volatility.
Pessimists
High capital spending and debt for AI development pose economic risks and could lead to collapsed capex plans.
Market Stability
Optimists
Strong productivity growth allows for economic expansion without inflation, supporting stock market gains.
Pessimists
Increased debt and R&D spending could lead to earnings volatility and reduced cash flow for other investments.
- Alphabet's stock performance
- Up nearly 70% year-to-date, approaching $4 trillion market value
- Japan's 10-year JGB yield
- Hit a 17-year high
- Japan's 30-year JGB yield
- Jumped to a record in November
- Yen's value
- Near 10-month low against the dollar
- OPEC's output decision
- Unchanged through Q1 2026
- Oil prices
- Trending lower, in the low $60s per barrel
- S&P 500 performance
- Ended November with a 0.1% gain
- U.S. peace plan
- 28-point proposal, updated with Ukraine and Washington
- AI Stocks
- Divergence in performance; 'GOOG Complex' (Alphabet, Broadcom, etc.) as winners, 'OpenAI Complex' (Nvidia, Microsoft, etc.) as losers
- Economic Growth
- Potential for +2% growth without inflation
