Archive · 2 Sep 2026
Super El Niño May Bring India Drier, More Dangerous Monsoons
El Niño is a change in Pacific Ocean temperatures that can affect weather around the world.
It often makes India’s summer monsoon weaker.
But a weaker monsoon does not mean rain will disappear.
Sometimes long dry periods are interrupted by very heavy storms.
Those sudden storms can cause floods and landslides.
Kerala had less rain than usual overall this season, but it received extremely heavy rain in one week.
That rainfall was followed by deadly flooding and landslides.
Scientists expect El Niño to become very strong later in 2026, but it does not guarantee drought or floods.
The important question is where, when and how heavily the rain falls.
India’s monsoon rainfall was about 12% below average nationally by early August 2026.
Kerala received 22% less seasonal rainfall than normal but more than twice its usual rain during one week.
The intense Kerala rainfall triggered floods and landslides that killed 26 people by August 5.
El Niño is linked to weaker Indian monsoons, but only seven of 16 El Niño years since 1950 had below-normal rainfall.
Researchers say El Niño can bring lower seasonal rainfall alongside more intense daily downpours, though individual floods cannot be attributed to it without specific analysis.
- Who
- People across India, especially communities affected by Kerala’s floods and landslides, are at risk from the monsoon’s uneven rainfall.
- What
- A strengthening El Niño could make India’s monsoon drier overall while increasing the intensity of some rainfall events.
- When
- During the 2026 summer monsoon; El Niño is expected to strengthen through the northern-hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026–27.
- Where
- Across India, with particular concern for Kerala, the southwest coast and parts of central-eastern India.
- Why
- El Niño often weakens Indian monsoon rainfall, while research indicates it can also intensify extreme daily rainfall.
- National rainfall by early August
- About 12% below average across India.
- Kerala seasonal rainfall
- About 22% below normal from June 1 to August 5.
- Kerala’s wettest reported week
- From July 30 to August 5, rainfall exceeded twice the usual amount.
- Reported Kerala deaths
- Twenty-six people had died in monsoon-related incidents by August 5.
- Initial monsoon forecast
- The India Meteorological Department predicted June–September rainfall at about 92% of the long-term average.
- El Niño history
- Seven of 16 El Niño years recorded since 1950 were associated with below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall.
- Forecast El Niño strength
- A CanSIPS model update forecast a peak of +4.15°C in September and six months at record strength.