Archive · 29 Sep 2026
Trump's Nobel Prospects Fall as Mark Carney Emerges Favorite
Donald Trump was once considered a leading candidate for a Nobel Prize.
Now, betting estimates say his chances have dropped a lot.
The change is connected to what has happened during the war in Iran.
Covers.com said Trump was the favorite last year.
It said his chances are much weaker this year.
Kalshi, another prediction market, estimates his chance is nearly zero.
Mark Carney is described in the headline as a surprise favorite.
The article does not provide further details about Carney's chances.
Donald Trump's implied chance of winning the 2026 Nobel Prize has fallen sharply.
The decline is linked to developments surrounding the war in Iran.
Covers.com said Trump was favored to win last year.
Covers.com said it no longer expects Trump to win this year.
Kalshi currently places Trump's chance of winning the prize near zero.
- Who
- Donald Trump and Mark Carney are identified in connection with the Nobel Prize predictions.
- What
- Trump's implied chance of winning the 2026 Nobel Prize has fallen sharply, while Mark Carney has emerged as a surprise favorite.
- When
- The discussion concerns the 2026 prize and cites Covers.com's latest update.
- Where
- The article links the change to the war in Iran; no specific location for the prize prediction is provided.
- Why
- Covers.com attributes Trump's declining prospects to developments surrounding the war in Iran.
- Prize year
- 2026
- Former favorite
- Donald Trump was described as the favorite last year.
- Current assessment
- Covers.com said Trump's chance of winning is near zero.
- Prediction market
- Kalshi was cited as offering a more realistic representation of Trump's chances.
- Reported factor
- Developments in the war in Iran were linked to the decline.
- Surprise favorite
- Mark Carney is identified in the headline as an emerging favorite.