Archive · 21 Jul 2026
Goldman Predicts Brent Could Hit $120 if Hormuz Disruptions Continue
Goldman Sachs says that if there are big problems with oil ships going through the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil could go up to $120 a barrel by the end of the year.
Right now, they think it will be around $80.
There are some things that could make the price go up, like fights between countries and problems with ships.
But there are also things that could keep the price from going up too much, like less oil being bought by China and more oil being stored around the world.
Goldman Sachs predicts Brent crude could hit $120 a barrel by Q4 2026 if Hormuz disruptions continue.
Current base case is Brent at $80 a barrel in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027.
Escalation in West Asia and shipping disruptions in Hormuz and Red Sea could push prices higher.
Lower global inventories and slump in Chinese imports may limit price gains.
Goldman suggests hedging geopolitical shocks with a long position on European diesel timespread.
- Who
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
- What
- Prediction of Brent crude price rally to $120 if disruptions persist
- When
- Fourth quarter of 2026
- Where
- Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea
- Why
- Escalation in West Asia and shipping disruptions
Optimistic View
Cautious View
Oil Price Projection
Optimistic View
Brent crude could rally to more than $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions persist.
Cautious View
Goldman's base case is Brent at $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter, with $75 next year.
Market Factors
Optimistic View
Escalation in West Asia and shipping disruptions in Hormuz and the Red Sea could push prices higher.
Cautious View
Lower global inventories and a slump in Chinese imports may limit expected gains.
- Current Brent Price
- $88.65 a barrel
- Goldman's Base Case for Q4 2026
- $80 a barrel
- Goldman's Forecast for 2027
- $75 a barrel
- Peak Brent Price in April 2026
- Above $126 a barrel
- Critical Shipping Routes
- Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea