Archive · 24 Jan 2026
Hedge Funds Boost Swap Spread Trade
Hedge funds are making big bets on a trade that involves US government bonds and something called interest rate swaps.
This trade, known as the swap spread widener trade, has become popular because people think that changes in rules and policies will make it more profitable.
The idea is that the difference between the rates on these swaps and the yields on government bonds will grow.
This week, the difference reached its widest point since last December.
Big banks like Barclays and Morgan Stanley are involved in this trade, and they think it will continue to do well.
However, there are risks.
In April, a similar trade had big problems when the market got shaken up by some unexpected news.
So, while things look good now, there's always a chance something could go wrong.
Hedge funds are increasing bets on the swap spread widener trade, which wagers on US Treasuries outperforming interest rate swaps.
The 30-year swap spread reached 62 basis points inverted, the widest since December 2022.
The trade's popularity is driven by expectations of bank deregulation and favorable market conditions.
The value of the cash component of the swap spread trade is around $631 billion, more than doubling from early 2024.
Risks include market shocks, policy shifts, and changes in Treasury supply.
- Who
- Hedge funds and financial institutions
- What
- A trade betting on US Treasuries outperforming interest rate swaps
- When
- Recent months, with a boost this week
- Where
- Global financial markets, primarily US
- Why
- Expectations of bank deregulation and favorable market conditions
- Trade Name
- Swap Spread Widener Trade
- Trade Value
- $631 billion
- Recent Spread
- 62 basis points inverted
- Key Players
- Barclays, Morgan Stanley, TD Securities
- Risks
- Market shocks, policy shifts, Treasury supply changes