Archive · 22 Aug 2026
CareEdge Forecasts 7.3% Q1 Growth, Raises FY27 Projection to 7%
India is expected to release its economic growth number for April through June on August 31.
CareEdge Ratings thinks the economy grew about 7.3% during that period.
This would be slightly slower than the previous quarter, when growth was reported at 7.8%.
Factories, construction, utilities and financial services helped support the economy.
Farming and some service industries were weaker because of weather problems, supply disruptions and slower government spending.
Tax collections after subsidies were lower, partly because some taxes were reduced.
Higher oil prices and global conflicts could make growth harder to maintain.
CareEdge expects growth to slow later in the year before improving in the final quarter.
Overall, the agency raised its full-year forecast because several economic indicators performed better than expected.
CareEdge Ratings expects India’s Q1 FY27 GDP growth at 7.3%, down from 7.8% in Q4 FY26.
The agency raised its FY27 growth forecast to 7% from 6.7%, citing stronger industrial output, credit, vehicle sales, exports and corporate earnings.
Manufacturing, construction, utilities, mining and financial services are expected to support growth, while agriculture and some services may weigh on activity.
Net indirect taxes fell 19% in the quarter, partly because of GST and fuel-duty reductions and higher subsidy spending.
CareEdge projects growth will slow to 6.9% in Q2 and 6.8% in Q3 before recovering to 7.1% in Q4 FY27.
- Who
- CareEdge Ratings, assessing India’s economic outlook.
- What
- The agency forecasts 7.3% GDP growth for India in Q1 FY27 and raises its FY27 forecast to 7%.
- When
- The Q1 GDP figure is due on August 31; the forecast covers April through June FY27.
- Where
- India, with risks and support linked partly to global trade, energy markets and geopolitical conditions.
- Why
- The revised forecast reflects stronger-than-expected industrial production, credit, vehicle sales, exports, corporate earnings and investment indicators.
Growth Supporters
Growth Risks
Near-term economic momentum
Growth Supporters
CareEdge Ratings expects 7.3% Q1 growth and raised its FY27 forecast to 7%, citing stronger industrial production, credit, vehicle sales, exports, earnings and investment.
Growth Risks
The agency expects growth to fall below 7% in Q2 and Q3, with energy prices, trade uncertainty, tighter monetary policy and geopolitical risks weighing on activity.
Sectoral performance
Growth Supporters
Manufacturing, construction, utilities, mining and financial, real estate and professional services are expected to provide important support.
Growth Risks
Agriculture, public administration and the trade, hotels, transport, communication and broadcasting cluster are expected to reduce growth momentum.
Global conditions
Growth Supporters
Resilient global growth, alternative shipping routes, diversified supply chains and investment in artificial intelligence could support India’s economy.
Growth Risks
The West Asia conflict, possible supply disruptions around key shipping routes, weaker merchandise trade and potential US tariffs on Russian-energy importers could hurt India.
- Q1 FY27 GDP forecast
- 7.3%, according to CareEdge Ratings
- FY27 GDP forecast
- 7%, raised from 6.7%
- Q1 FY27 GVA forecast
- 7.4%, compared with 7.9% in the preceding March quarter
- Manufacturing growth forecast
- 9.9% in Q1 FY27, compared with 7.3% in Q4 FY26
- Agriculture growth forecast
- 2.9%, down from 3.6% in Q4 FY26
- Services growth forecast
- 8%, down from 9.9% in Q4 FY26
- Net indirect taxes
- Down 19% during the quarter, while subsidy outgo rose 37%
- Global growth forecast for 2027
- 3.4%, according to the updated forecast cited by CareEdge