Archive · 25 Sep 2026
Carney Says Canada Must Prepare for Extreme U.S. Risk
Mark Carney is Canada’s prime minister.
He said Canada has thought about very unlikely dangers, including a possible U.S. invasion.
He made clear that an invasion is not what Canada expects to happen.
He said preparing for serious risks is part of his job.
Canada is also trying to rely less on the United States for trade and important services.
One example is finding alternatives to Starlink satellite internet.
Carney said Canada should not break apart industries that are closely connected across the border.
He also said countries may want more choices besides the U.S. dollar.
Even during the disagreement, he said he speaks with Donald Trump frequently.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada examined the extreme-tail risk of possible U.S. military action, while stressing an invasion is not a base case.
Carney said preparing for an unlikely invasion would be responsible risk management amid Donald Trump’s repeated statehood rhetoric.
Canada plans to diversify away from U.S.-linked services, including SpaceX’s Starlink satellite broadband.
Carney said economic separation has limits, opposing a breakup of the integrated auto sector and using energy or food exports as leverage.
He said tariffs and other U.S. trade tactics could increase demand for alternative reserve currencies and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.
- Who
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, U.S. President Donald Trump, and the governments of Canada and the United States.
- What
- Carney discussed contingency planning for the extreme-tail risk of U.S. military action and Canada’s efforts to reduce economic and strategic dependence on the United States.
- When
- In an interview with The New York Times, reported Thursday; the articles do not provide the interview’s exact date.
- Where
- Canada and its economic, trade, and strategic relationship with the United States.
- Why
- Carney cited risk management, Trump’s statehood rhetoric, tariffs, and concerns about excessive dependence on one economic partner.
Canadian Risk Management and Diversification
Continued Integration and U.S. Pressure
Preparing for military risk
Canadian Risk Management and Diversification
Carney said Canada has a responsibility to examine extreme-tail risks, including possible U.S. military action, even though an invasion is unlikely.
Continued Integration and U.S. Pressure
The articles report Trump’s repeated rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state but do not identify a specific U.S. plan to invade Canada.
Reducing dependence on the United States
Canadian Risk Management and Diversification
Carney and the Canadian government argue that tariffs and other trade actions show the risks of relying too heavily on one economic partner, making diversification necessary.
Continued Integration and U.S. Pressure
Carney acknowledged that the countries remain deeply connected, saying Canada should not break up the integrated auto sector or use energy and food exports as leverage.
Canada’s broader strategic alignment
Canadian Risk Management and Diversification
Canada is seeking relationships and services outside the United States, including alternatives to Starlink and potentially closer commercial ties with Europe.
Continued Integration and U.S. Pressure
Trump said a Canadian move toward associate membership in the European Union could lead to very serious tariffs or reduced trade if he viewed it as hostile.
- Speaker
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney
- Military risk
- A possible U.S. invasion was examined as an extreme-tail risk, not a base case
- Diversification
- Canada is seeking to reduce economic and strategic dependence on the United States
- Technology
- Carney said Canada will diversify away from SpaceX’s Starlink satellite broadband
- Economic integration
- Carney said breaking up the interconnected automobile sector would not make sense
- Currency outlook
- Carney expects demand for alternatives to the U.S. dollar to grow
- Communication
- Carney said he speaks with Donald Trump frequently
