Archive · 21 Jan 2026
El Nino Transition Possible as La Nina Weakens
The weather experts in Australia are saying that the current La Niña, which brings cooler waters to the Pacific, might be weakening.
This could mean we might see a change to El Niño, which is known for bringing warmer waters and sometimes droughts.
Right now, the sea temperatures are a bit mixed, with some areas warmer and some cooler than usual.
The experts think that by the end of February, things might balance out to a neutral state.
They also mention that the winds and other weather patterns are showing signs of this change.
However, they are not completely sure because predicting weather this far in advance can be tricky.
They also say that another weather pattern called the Indian Ocean Dipole will stay neutral for now.
Overall, it's a time of change in the weather patterns, and we might see different weather conditions in the coming months.
La Niña persists but shows signs of weakening with sub-surface warming.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) indicate mixed conditions around Australia.
BoM predicts a transition to neutral ENSO state by the end of February.
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values are near La Niña thresholds.
Trade winds may weaken, contributing to the breakdown of La Niña pattern.
- Who
- Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)
- What
- Potential transition from La Niña to El Niño weather patterns
- When
- Possible drought-bearing El Niño weather developing from June
- Where
- Tropical Pacific and Australia
- Why
- Recent sub-surface warming and weakening La Niña indicators
- Current La Niña Status
- Persistent but weakening
- Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Index
- -0.91°C (as of January 18)
- Expected ENSO State by February End
- Neutral
- Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) 30-day
- +11.5
- Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) 60-day
- +5.9
- Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) 90-day
- +8.8
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Status
- Neutral until at least May
- Southern Annular Mode (SAM) Index
- Neutral as of January 17