Archive · 6 Sep 2026
India Fills Europe’s Diesel Gap as Russian Supplies Falter
Europe needs large amounts of diesel fuel.
Russia used to supply much of this fuel, but its exports have fallen sharply.
Damage to Russian refineries and export facilities has made it harder for Russia to ship diesel.
The United States also sent less diesel to Europe during the second half of August.
India supplied about 60% of the diesel traveling through the Bab-el-Mandeb route toward Europe.
India can export fuel because its refineries can produce more than the country uses.
However, India imported less crude oil in August than it did a year earlier.
This could make it harder for India to keep supplying Europe if the shortage continues.
Indian refiners supplied roughly 60% of diesel moving through Bab-el-Mandeb toward Europe in August 2026.
About 200,000 barrels per day of diesel and gasoil crossed the route, near year-earlier levels after flows nearly stalled in March and April.
Russian seaborne diesel and gasoil exports averaged about 150,000 barrels per day during the first 25 days of August.
US diesel shipments to Europe fell from about 540,000 barrels per day in early August to 350,000 barrels per day later in the month.
India’s crude and condensate inflows fell to about 3.8 million barrels per day in August, raising questions about the durability of its exports.
- Who
- Indian refiners, European fuel buyers, Russia, the United States, Ukraine, and energy intelligence firm Vortexa.
- What
- India became the largest reported source of diesel transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb toward Europe in August as Russian exports remained depressed and US shipments declined later in the month.
- When
- The main data covers August 2026; Russia’s diesel export restrictions were scheduled to be lifted or partly relaxed from September 1, 2026. The reports were published September 6, 2026.
- Where
- Diesel shipments traveled through the Bab-el-Mandeb and Red Sea toward Europe. Disruptions also affected Russian refineries, the Black Sea, the Tuapse port, and the Perm refinery.
- Why
- Russian refinery and export disruptions, weaker US shipments, constrained traditional routes, and India’s spare refining capacity shifted a larger share of Europe’s diesel supply toward Indian refiners.
Supply-Shift Interpretation
Supply-Risk Interpretation
India’s growing role
Supply-Shift Interpretation
India’s large, export-oriented refining system and spare capacity are helping replace part of the diesel volume lost from Russia.
Supply-Risk Interpretation
India’s crude and condensate inflows have declined, which could limit how long refiners can sustain higher exports.
Russian export recovery
Supply-Shift Interpretation
The scheduled lifting or partial relaxation of Russia’s diesel export restrictions from September 1 could eventually support additional supply.
Supply-Risk Interpretation
Vortexa said a quick recovery may not occur because Ukrainian attacks have damaged Russian refineries and export infrastructure.
Europe’s supply outlook
Supply-Shift Interpretation
India and the United States are providing important alternative supplies, while Bab-el-Mandeb flows have returned close to year-earlier levels.
Supply-Risk Interpretation
US shipments weakened later in August, Hormuz provided limited clean-product flows, and Europe faces low inventories and approaching winter demand.
- Indian share of route flows
- Roughly 60% of diesel and gasoil volumes transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb toward Europe in August.
- Diesel moving toward Europe
- About 200,000 barrels per day crossed the route in August.
- India’s refining capacity
- 258.1 million tonnes per year, exceeding domestic fuel demand.
- India’s petroleum-product exports
- 61.5 million tonnes in fiscal year 2025-26.
- India’s August crude inflows
- About 3.8 million barrels per day, down from about 4.8 million barrels per day a year earlier.
- Russia’s August diesel exports
- About 150,000 barrels per day during the first 25 days of August, 81% below the five-year seasonal average.
- Russian refinery attacks
- Vortexa recorded 32 attacks during July and August.
- US diesel shipments
- Shipments to Europe declined from about 540,000 barrels per day in the first half of August to about 350,000 barrels per day in the second half.
