Archive · 24 Aug 2026
Poll Puts Melenchon in France’s Presidential Runoff Path
A new poll looked at possible candidates for France’s next presidential election.
It found that Jean-Luc Melenchon could reach the final round in several possible election matchups.
Marine Le Pen was expected to receive more votes than him in the first round.
The poll also said Le Pen would beat Melenchon in a final contest.
Melenchon has run for president three times before but never reached the runoff.
The poll suggests that voters are moving toward strongly left-wing or right-wing parties.
Centrist candidates are having trouble attracting enough support.
Edouard Philippe said a Le Pen-Melenchon runoff is a serious possibility.
The poll comes as Emmanuel Macron’s presidency approaches its constitutional end.
Jean-Luc Melenchon is projected to reach the presidential runoff in at least three of five scenarios.
Marine Le Pen is projected to lead the first round with 35% to 38% of votes.
Melenchon is projected to win about 16% to 17% in the first round.
Le Pen is projected to defeat Melenchon with 64% of runoff votes.
The poll highlights France’s increasingly polarized electorate as Emmanuel Macron’s presidency nears its end.
- Who
- Jean-Luc Melenchon, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, and other French presidential candidates, including Edouard Philippe.
- What
- A poll projects Melenchon as a likely rival to Le Pen in France’s next presidential runoff.
- When
- The poll was reported on Monday, Aug. 24, ahead of next year’s presidential election; Macron’s second and final term is nearing its end.
- Where
- France, with the report filed from Paris.
- Why
- The poll attributes the possibility to an increasingly polarized electorate, a weakened political center, and concerns about France’s economy.
- First-round projection
- Marine Le Pen was projected to receive 35% to 38% of votes.
- Melenchon projection
- Jean-Luc Melenchon was projected to receive about 16% to 17% of first-round votes.
- Runoff projection
- Le Pen was projected to win 64% of votes against Melenchon.
- Runoff scenarios
- Melenchon was projected to reach the runoff in at least three of five scenarios and tie for second in a fourth.
- Previous campaigns
- Melenchon has run for president in 2012, 2017, and 2022.
- Political context
- The poll described France’s electorate as increasingly polarized as Macron’s presidency draws to a close.