Archive · 6 Aug 2026
RBI Rate-Hike Cycle Likely to Start Early in December 2026
Morgan Stanley is a big bank that watches money and prices around the world.
It wrote a report about India's money.
In India, there is a special bank called the Reserve Bank of India.
That bank decides how much it costs to borrow money.
When borrowing costs more money, people buy fewer things and prices stop rising so fast.
Right now, prices in India are rising faster than the bank wants.
Morgan Stanley thinks the bank will raise its borrowing cost starting in December 2026.
It thinks this will happen sooner than people first thought.
The bank might raise the cost a few times until it reaches 6 per cent.
Morgan Stanley also says lots of money is coming into India from other countries, which is good for India's economy.
Morgan Stanley expects India's central bank to begin raising rates in December 2026, earlier than the previously expected April 2027.
The report forecasts a cumulative 75 basis points of hikes, taking the terminal repo rate to 6 per cent.
Inflation is expected to remain above 5 per cent until June 2027, driven by supply pressures and firming core CPI.
RBI capital-flow measures have mobilised about $36.7 billion in FCNR(B) deposits, with roughly $70-80 billion in incremental inflows expected.
The RBI's monetary policy committee kept the policy rate at 5.25 per cent with a neutral stance and revised FY27 GDP growth to 6.7 per cent.
- Who
- Morgan Stanley (report author) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
- What
- A Morgan Stanley report forecasts the RBI will start hiking the repo rate in December 2026, delivering a cumulative 75 basis points of hikes to a 6 per cent terminal rate.
- When
- Report released on a Thursday; rate hikes expected to begin December 2026 (earlier than April 2027)
- Where
- India; report published in New Delhi
- Why
- Because inflation is expected to remain above 5 per cent until June 2027 due to supply pressures and firming core CPI.
- Forecast source
- Morgan Stanley report
- Current repo rate
- 5.25 per cent
- Expected cumulative hikes
- 75 basis points
- Expected terminal rate
- 6 per cent
- Expected hike start
- December 2026 (previously April 2027)
- FY27 GDP growth forecast
- 6.7 per cent
- FY27 headline CPI forecast
- 5 per cent
- FCNR(B) deposits mobilised
- About $36.7 billion