Global Agri Markets: Low Prices, High Geopolitical Risk in 2026

Imagine the world's farms and the food they grow.

Usually, the price of food goes up or down based on how much is grown and how much people want to buy.

But now, big countries like the US and China are having disagreements.

This means they are using rules like extra taxes on food (tariffs) and stopping certain foods from being sold (export controls) to get what they want.

This makes it harder for farmers and buyers to know what will happen.

Rabobank, a research group, says that even though there will be plenty of food like grains and oilseeds in 2026, these political disagreements are the biggest risk.

For India, which buys a lot of cooking oil and sells sugar and rice, this means import costs might be stable, but trade can be suddenly disrupted.

Prices for things like palm oil might go up because of rules in other countries.

For sugar, there's expected to be extra available, but selling it internationally might not bring much profit.

Even though India's economy is doing okay, it still needs to watch out for problems with buying oils, selling sugar, and following new rules from other countries.