Archive · 14 Aug 2026
Pakistan Most Likely to Use Nuclear Weapons First, Analyst Predicts
Some people study how countries keep each other safe.
A man named Professor Jiang Xueqin studies big world problems.
He made a guess about nuclear weapons.
Nuclear weapons are very powerful bombs that can hurt many people.
Only once in history have they been used in a war.
Professor Jiang said he does not think these bombs will be used again in our lifetimes.
He said countries have a rule, or taboo, against using them.
But he also said that if a country ever did use them first, it would probably be Pakistan.
He thinks Pakistan is very weak and sometimes has trouble staying organized.
He also said India and Pakistan do not follow the same rules about when they might use nuclear weapons.
India says it will never attack first, but Pakistan has not promised that.
Professor Jiang Xueqin predicted Pakistan is the nation most likely to be the first to use nuclear weapons.
Jiang named India or Pakistan as likely first users, with Pakistan the more probable candidate.
He cited Pakistan's weakness, disorganisation, corruption and potentially inadequate control systems.
India maintains a declared No First Use posture, while Pakistan has not adopted one and retains strategic ambiguity.
Jiang said he does not believe nuclear weapons will be used in our lifetimes because of a universal taboo.
- Who
- Professor Jiang Xueqin, a Chinese-born Canadian educator and geopolitical commentator, who made the prediction.
- What
- Predicted that Pakistan is the nation most likely to be the first to use nuclear weapons in a future conflict.
- When
- August 11, when his comments appeared in YouTube videos and a two-hour-long podcast.
- Where
- South Asia, as the prediction focuses on Pakistan and India.
- Why
- Because Pakistan is described as weak, poor, corrupt and divided, with control systems that may not restrain the country in an emergency, and it has no No First Use policy.
Restraint View
First-Use Risk View
Will nuclear weapons be used?
Restraint View
Jiang believes a universal taboo against nuclear weapons means they will not be used in our lifetimes.
First-Use Risk View
Nevertheless, if he had to guess, India or Pakistan would be first, with Pakistan most likely given its vulnerabilities.
Nuclear doctrine
Restraint View
India's declared No First Use posture argues for restraint, though the policy has been debated and qualified over the years.
First-Use Risk View
Pakistan has not adopted a No First Use policy and deliberately retains strategic ambiguity, raising the risk of first use.
- Predictor
- Professor Jiang Xueqin, Chinese-born Canadian geopolitical commentator
- Prediction
- Pakistan most likely nation to be the first to use nuclear weapons
- Date of comments
- YouTube videos appearing August 11
- Jiang's overall view
- Does not believe nuclear weapons will be used in our lifetimes due to a universal taboo
- Reason given
- Pakistan described as 'weak, poor, corrupt and divided' with possibly inadequate control systems
- India's nuclear posture
- Declared No First Use posture, though debated and qualified over the years
- Pakistan's nuclear posture
- No No First Use policy; deliberately retains strategic ambiguity
- Jiang's background
- Known for predictions like Trump's 2024 return to power and a possible US-Iran war; conceded he is not actually a professor