Archive · 30 Jul 2026
El Niño Intensifies, Monsoon Forecast Deficient in India
The government says the El Niño weather pattern, which can make the monsoon rain less, has gotten stronger this month.
Scientists think it could get even stronger by the end of 2026.
Because of this, the expected rain for the monsoon season is only about 90% of what usually happens, which is a bit less.
In June, India had a big rain shortfall, but it got better in July.
The next week, most parts of South and East India should get normal or even more rain because of a strong storm in the area.
El Niño intensity increased to moderate from weak in July.
Forecasts predict El Niño may become very strong during Oct‑Dec 2026, affecting monsoon.
India Meteorological Department expects current monsoon rainfall at 90% of long‑term average.
June monsoon deficit narrowed to 13.9% after early revival; July rainfall near normal.
IMD projects normal to above‑normal rainfall in South Peninsular and East India next week due to a deep depression.
- Who
- Ministry of Earth Sciences and India Meteorological Department
- What
- Update on El Niño intensity and monsoon rainfall forecast
- When
- Thursday in Parliament; current monsoon season; October‑December 2026
- Where
- India and the equatorial Pacific Ocean
- Why
- El Niño influences monsoon rainfall patterns
- El Niño intensity
- Moderate
- Monsoon rainfall forecast
- 90% of long‑term average
- Deficit after June revival
- 13.9%
- Projected El Niño strength Oct‑Dec 2026
- Very strong
- IMD forecast for next week
- Normal to above normal rainfall in South Peninsular and East India