Archive · 25 Jul 2025
India's G-sec Yield Curve: Rate Cuts and Market Dynamics
Imagine the yield curve like a line showing how much interest you pay on different types of loans.
This line has changed, becoming steeper.
This means short-term interest rates have gone down, thanks to the Reserve Bank cutting rates.
However, the long-term rates haven't changed much.
This is happening because there are more long-term bonds being offered, and there isn't as much demand from insurance companies.
Experts think the Reserve Bank might cut rates again, because inflation is low.
Banks are also getting a lot more money, which is helping the short-term rates, but not the long ones.
The yield curve has steepened, with short-end yields decreasing due to RBI rate cuts.
Ultra-long bond yields have remained relatively stable, influenced by supply concentration and weak insurance demand.
The RBI is expected to cut policy rates by another 25 bps in October/December, supported by low inflation.
Banking system liquidity is projected to increase significantly, reaching INR5tn by November/December.
Demand from other investor segments like pensions and banks is expected to support the market.
- Who
- Chief Economist, IDFC First Bank
- What
- Analysis of the G-sec yield curve.
- When
- Analysis focuses on the current state in 2025 and future expectations.
- Where
- India
- Why
- To understand the impact of monetary policy, government borrowing, and market expectations on the economy.
Short End
Long End
Yield Expectations
Short End
Short-end yields will see further reduction
Long End
Long-end yields will see limited support
- RBI Rate Cuts
- 100 bps (basis points) already, possibly 25 bps more
- Ultra-long Bond Share (Jan-Jun 2025)
- 32% of gross supply
- FY26 CPI Inflation
- Expected at 2.7%
- FY26 GDP Growth
- Expected at 6.3%
- Banking System Liquidity Peak
- INR5tn by Nov/Dec
- 10yr G-sec Yield Expectation
- Between 6.15% to 6.35%