Archive · 17 Sep 2026
Births Plunge Across Major Economies, Data Shows Uneven Demographic Decline
Many countries are having fewer babies than they did at their birth peaks.
Ukraine has seen the biggest drop among the countries shown.
Japan, South Korea and China have also experienced very large declines.
The United States has had a much smaller decline by comparison.
The United Nations says more than half of the world’s countries have fertility below the level needed to maintain their population without migration.
Some countries, including China, Italy, South Korea and Spain, have especially low fertility.
India’s population is still growing, but the number of births has also fallen.
These trends mean some countries may eventually have smaller populations.
Ukraine recorded the steepest decline in annual births, at 83.4% below its cited peak.
Japan’s annual births were down 75.2%, followed by South Korea at 74.5% and China at 73.4%.
Italy, Poland, Russia, Spain and Germany recorded declines ranging from 49.3% to 65.3%.
The United States showed a smaller decline of 16.7% from the 2007 peak used in the graphic.
The United Nations says more than half of countries have below-replacement fertility, while India’s births fell from 29 million in 2001 to an estimated 23 million in 2024.
- Who
- The data was shared by economist Sanjeev Sanyal and interpreted alongside United Nations population projections.
- What
- The figures compare declines in annual live births from each country’s cited peak to its current level.
- When
- Sanjeev Sanyal shared the graphic on September 17, 2026; the United Nations data cited is from 2024, and India’s birth estimate is for 2024.
- Where
- The comparison covers major countries including Ukraine, Japan, South Korea, China, Italy, Poland, Russia, Spain, Germany and the United States.
- Why
- The figures are presented in the context of falling fertility rates and broader demographic change across major economies.
- Largest decline
- Ukraine: 83.4% below its cited peak in annual births.
- East Asian declines
- Japan: 75.2%; South Korea: 74.5%; China: 73.4%.
- Other major declines
- Italy: 65.3%; Poland: 64.8%; Russia: 61.1%; Spain: 54.1%; Germany: 49.3%.
- United States
- Annual births were 16.7% below the 2007 peak used in the graphic.
- Global fertility
- More than half of countries and areas have fertility below 2.1 births per woman, according to the United Nations.
- Ultra-low fertility
- Nearly one-fifth of countries and areas have fewer than 1.4 births per woman.
- India births
- India’s births peaked at 29 million in 2001 and were estimated at about 23 million in 2024.