Archive · 17 Nov 2025
New Nuclear Arms Race Pits US Against Russia and China
Imagine the world is playing a game with super powerful 'toys' that can destroy big cities.
For a long time, only a few countries had these toys, and they mostly talked about not using them.
But now, two countries, Russia and China, are getting many more of these toys, and one of them, China, is making them very quickly.
Another country, North Korea, also has some and is getting better at using them.
This makes the United States feel like it needs to get more toys too, or at least get its current ones much better.
It's like a new competition is starting, but instead of just one big challenger like before, the US has two major ones, and they aren't playing by the old rules.
This worries people because more powerful toys around means a higher chance of them being used, especially if there's a fight, like over Taiwan or in Europe.
The US faces a new nuclear arms race against both Russia and China, unlike the Cold War's single rival.
China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal and is expected to reach near-parity with the US in deployed warheads by the mid-2030s.
Russia is developing new-generation nuclear systems and has used nuclear threats to advance its geopolitical aims.
North Korea, allied with Russia, is also investing in advanced nuclear capabilities.
The US nuclear modernization strategy is being re-evaluated due to these emerging threats and the breakdown of previous arms control assumptions.
- Who
- United States, Russia, China, and North Korea
- What
- A new nuclear arms race is emerging, with the US facing two peer rivals (Russia and China) and an emerging threat from North Korea, challenging previous assumptions about arms control and US strategic posture.
- When
- The buildup is described as current, with an estimated mid-2030s parity between the US and China, and warnings of a 'third nuclear age' beginning.
- Where
- Global, with specific references to US, Russia, China, North Korea, Belarus, Ukraine, Taiwan Strait, and potential conflict zones in Europe and Asia.
- Why
- Driven by China's rapid expansion, Russia's development of new nuclear systems and use of nuclear threats, and the erosion of arms control frameworks. The US is perceived as slow to react to these evolving threats.
US and Allies' Concerns
Russia and China's Strategic Views
Nuclear Arsenal Buildup
US and Allies' Concerns
The US and its allies view the movement as a buildup of nuclear arsenals rather than a reduction, entering a 'third nuclear age' resembling the Cold War. Concerns exist about US readiness for simultaneous conflicts and the erosion of mutual-defense commitments.
Russia and China's Strategic Views
China is focused on catching up to US and Russian arsenals and argues that the two largest nuclear powers should reduce their own stockpiles first. Russia uses nuclear threats to compensate for conventional military weaknesses.
Nuclear Testing
US and Allies' Concerns
Former President Trump has called for the resumption of nuclear testing, which the US has not conducted since 1992, citing reports of Russian and Chinese supercritical tests. There are concerns about the readiness and implications of such tests.
Russia and China's Strategic Views
Russia's President Putin has instructed his defense ministry to study resuming nuclear testing, while China is described as having a 'smarter approach' by focusing on building warheads and missiles rather than 'weird and exotic' weapons. Some experts suggest Russian nuclear pronouncements are strategic communication and a 'fear factor' rather than fully operational capabilities.
Strategic Posture and Modernization
US and Allies' Concerns
US nuclear modernization programs were based on assumptions of continued cuts with Russia and China and North Korea not posing significant challenges, which have proven wrong. There's a need to consider expanding the US arsenal.
Russia and China's Strategic Views
Chinese strategists believe increasing their arsenal deters the US from considering nuclear weapon use in a conventional conflict, aiming to win conventionally. Russia is developing new-generation systems, some claimed to be impervious to US defenses.
- Current US Nuclear Warheads
- 5,117 (including 3,700 retired in stockpiles)
- Current Russian Nuclear Warheads
- 5,459
- Current Chinese Nuclear Warheads
- 600
- North Korean Nuclear Warheads
- Estimated 50
- US Last Explosive Nuclear Test
- 1992
- Estimated US-China Warhead Parity
- Mid-2030s