Archive · 5 Sep 2026
Very Strong El Niño May Reshape India’s Weather Outlook
El Niño is a warming of ocean water in the Pacific Ocean that can change weather around the world.
This El Niño is already very strong and may become even stronger.
It is expected to last until February 2027.
Another ocean pattern, called the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, may develop in the Indian Ocean.
This second pattern can change how El Niño affects India.
However, scientists do not know whether it will reduce or increase El Niño’s effects.
India has already received much less rain than usual in September.
The unusual weather could affect crops, water supplies and preparations for winter farming.
The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is firmly established and could become one of the strongest on record.
WMO forecasts nearly a 100% chance that El Niño will continue through February 2027 and peak around November-December.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected during September-November, with a forecast seasonal average value of about 0.9°C.
The Indian Ocean Dipole may reinforce, weaken or alter El Niño’s effects, but no forecast says it will fully offset them in India.
India’s September rainfall was 35% below normal, raising concerns for crops and potentially making 2026 the weakest monsoon in nearly two decades.
- Who
- The World Meteorological Organization, India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences and the India Meteorological Department are assessing the climate patterns and their possible effects on India.
- What
- A very strong El Niño is strengthening while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may develop, creating uncertainty about India’s weather and monsoon impacts.
- When
- El Niño is expected to peak around November-December and continue through February 2027; the positive IOD is forecast for September-November.
- Where
- The climate patterns are developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, with potential effects across India and other regions.
- Why
- El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole can interact to reinforce, weaken or alter rainfall and temperature patterns, affecting agriculture, water management and weather preparedness.
- El Niño status
- WMO describes the event as very strong and expects it to intensify further.
- Forecast duration
- WMO gives El Niño nearly a 100% chance of continuing through February 2027.
- Expected peak
- El Niño is forecast to peak around November-December.
- Nino 3.4 forecast
- The September-November sea-surface temperature anomaly is forecast at about 3.6°C.
- Positive IOD forecast
- The September-November seasonal average IOD value is forecast at about 0.9°C.
- India rainfall
- September rainfall was 35% below normal at the time of the report; June rainfall was also 35% below normal.
- Crop concerns
- The rainfall deficit has raised concerns about cotton, soybean, maize and rice, as well as upcoming winter crops.