Archive · 29 Sep 2026
Study Warns United States Could Face Surgeon Shortage By 2038
A new study says the United States may not have enough surgeons in the future.
By 2038, the country could be short almost 28,000 surgeons.
The number of available surgeons is expected to fall, while more people may need surgery.
The study looked at 10 different surgical specialties.
Vascular surgery is expected to have one of the biggest shortages.
Rural areas may have an especially hard time finding surgeons.
Patients could face longer waits or need to travel farther for treatment.
The researchers say solutions should be designed for specific specialties and locations.
The findings will be presented at a major surgeons’ meeting in Washington, D.C.
The United States could face a shortage of approximately 27,940 surgeons by 2038.
The projected workforce would meet only 84.3% of national surgical demand.
Surgeon supply is expected to decline 4.2%, while demand rises 12.8% between 2023 and 2038.
Vascular surgery is projected to face the largest gap, meeting 65.8% of demand.
Rural communities are expected to experience more severe shortages and reduced access to care.
- Who
- Researchers led by Fernando Ribeiro Duraes, a medical student at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, assessed the US surgical workforce.
- What
- The study projects a national shortage of approximately 27,940 surgeons by 2038.
- When
- The projections cover 2023 through 2038; the findings are scheduled to be presented September 26–29, 2026.
- Where
- The projected shortage affects the United States, with rural areas facing a sharper gap; the findings will be presented in Washington, D.C.
- Why
- The projected gap is driven by a 4.2% decline in surgeon supply alongside a 12.8% increase in demand.
- Projected shortage
- Approximately 27,940 surgeons by 2038
- Workforce coverage
- 84.3% of projected national surgical need
- Supply change
- A projected 4.2% decline from 2023 to 2038
- Demand change
- A projected 12.8% increase from 2023 to 2038
- Largest specialty gap
- Vascular surgery, with workforce meeting 65.8% of demand
- Specialties studied
- 10 surgical specialties, including general surgery, orthopedics, ophthalmology, and urology
- Presentation event
- American College of Surgeons Clinical Congress 2026, September 26–29 in Washington, D.C.