Archive · 27 Jul 2026
Lula Leads Bolsonaro in Brazilian Election Poll
A recent poll in Brazil shows that President Lula is leading over Senator Bolsonaro in a simulated second-round runoff for the upcoming presidential election.
In the first round, Lula has 42% support, followed by Bolsonaro with 33%.
If no candidate gets more than 50% of the votes in the first round, the top two candidates move to a runoff.
In the runoff scenario, Lula leads with 47% support compared to Bolsonaro's 43%.
The poll was conducted by Nexus and commissioned by BTG Pactual, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Lula leads Bolsonaro in a simulated second-round runoff with 47% to 43%.
In the first round, Lula has 42% support, followed by Bolsonaro with 33%.
Other candidates include Ronaldo Caiado (6%), Renan Santos (5%), and Romeu Zema (3%).
The poll was conducted by Nexus and commissioned by BTG Pactual.
The margin of error for the poll is 2 percentage points.
- Who
- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro
- What
- A poll showing Lula leading Bolsonaro in a simulated second-round runoff for the October presidential election
- When
- The poll was conducted from July 24-26
- Where
- Brazil
- Why
- To gauge public opinion ahead of the October presidential election
Lula Supporters
Bolsonaro Supporters
Election Poll Results
Lula Supporters
Lula leads in both first-round and runoff scenarios, indicating strong support.
Bolsonaro Supporters
Bolsonaro is a close contender, showing significant support and potential for a tight race.
- Poll Date
- July 24-26
- Margin of Error
- 2 percentage points
- First-Round Results
- Lula: 42%, Bolsonaro: 33%, Caiado: 6%, Santos: 5%, Zema: 3%
- Runoff Results
- Lula: 47%, Bolsonaro: 43%
- Poll Commissioned By
- BTG Pactual
- Poll Conducted By
- Nexus