Archive · 19 Sep 2025
Aluminum Prices Rise, Analyst Cautious on Vedanta, Hindalco, Nalco
Aluminum prices have gone up recently, but an analyst company called Kotak thinks this might not last.
They're cautious about investing in aluminum producers like Vedanta, Hindalco, and Nalco, even though prices have risen.
One reason is that the cost of making aluminum (alumina) is low.
Also, demand might not stay high due to some uncertainty.
Although the global demand for aluminum increased, Kotak expects the demand to decrease.
The company predicts prices will fall in the future.
They suggest other industries might be better investments right now.
In short, while prices look good now, the future might not be as bright for aluminum.
LME aluminum prices have increased by 5% in the past month.
Kotak Institutional Equities is cautious on aluminum producers like Vedanta, Hindalco, and Nalco.
Alumina prices are near a two-year low.
Global aluminum demand growth is expected to slow down in 2025 and 2026.
Kotak estimates the aluminum market will remain in a mild deficit in 2025 and 2026.
- Who
- Kotak Institutional Equities
- What
- Analyzed aluminum prices and outlook for companies like Vedanta, Hindalco, and Nalco
- When
- The past month; CY2025E and CY2026E
- Where
- Global aluminum market
- Why
- To assess investment potential and forecast price trends.
Market Optimism
Analyst Cautiousness
Price Outlook
Market Optimism
Aluminum prices have risen in the past month.
Analyst Cautiousness
Kotak sees downside risks to aluminum prices.
Demand Growth
Market Optimism
Global aluminum demand grew in 1HCY25
Analyst Cautiousness
Kotak expects demand momentum to fade due to trade uncertainties.
- Aluminum Price Increase
- 5% in the past month
- Alumina Prices
- Near a two-year low
- Global Aluminum Demand Growth (2024)
- 3.7%
- Global Aluminum Demand Growth (2025E)
- 1.8%
- Global Aluminum Demand Growth (2026E)
- 1.7%
- Alumina Price YTD (2025)
- Down 50%
- Aluminum Spot Spreads
- US$1,640/ton
- Kotak Valuation of Vedanta
- Rs 450