Archive · 26 Jan 2026
Global economy faces uncertainty in 2026
The World Economic Forum's latest survey shows that more than half of the chief economists think the global economy will slow down in 2026.
Only a small number expect stronger growth.
The main worries are high debt, expensive assets, and ongoing conflicts between countries.
Some parts of the economy, like AI-related stocks in the U.S., are doing well, but others are at risk.
Governments and businesses have a lot of debt, which makes it hard to spend money on important things.
Trade is also changing, with countries making new agreements to protect their interests.
Artificial intelligence is expected to help the economy grow, but not everyone will benefit equally.
Some people are buying gold to protect their money from uncertainty.
Governments are spending a lot of money to boost economic growth and jobs, but this could be risky with low unemployment and higher interest rates.
In Japan, the yields on long-term government debt surged to record highs after a plan to increase spending and cut consumption tax was unveiled.
Economists warn of vulnerabilities in advanced economies, including weak private-sector demand and poor productivity growth.
In the U.S. and Germany, fiscal stimulus is set to boost economic growth by around 1 percentage point this year.
China is set to run a nearly 9% of GDP aggregate budget deficit for the second year in a row.
The heavy spending represents a strategic shift from austerity to addressing growing challenges, such as AI, tariffs, and rearmament.
However, higher inflation and interest rates could make government debt unsustainable in the long term.
53% of chief economists expect the global economy to weaken in 2026, while only 19% foresee stronger growth.
Key risks include high debt levels, inflated asset prices, geopolitical tensions, and trade disputes.
AI is seen as a productivity booster but benefits will be unevenly distributed.
Global trade is becoming more fragmented with countries turning to regional and bilateral agreements.
Governments are rolling out large fiscal stimulus packages financed by bumper budget deficits to boost economic growth and jobs.
- Who
- World Economic Forum's chief economists, governments, and businesses
- What
- Global economic outlook and government debt levels
- When
- Survey conducted in January 2026, current economic conditions
- Where
- Global economy, with a focus on the U.S., Europe, and Asia
- Why
- Due to high debt levels, inflated asset prices, geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and the impact of AI
Optimists
Pessimists
Economic Growth
Optimists
AI and fiscal stimulus will boost economic growth in the near term.
Pessimists
High debt levels and geopolitical tensions will weaken the global economy.
Government Debt
Optimists
Government spending is necessary to address economic challenges and can be managed without immediate problems.
Pessimists
High government debt levels are unsustainable and could lead to a financial crisis.
Trade and Geopolitics
Optimists
Regional and bilateral trade agreements will help countries navigate geopolitical tensions.
Pessimists
Escalating trade wars and geopolitical tensions will fragment global trade and harm economic growth.
- Survey Date
- January 2026
- Economists Expecting Weakness
- 53%
- Economists Expecting Stronger Growth
- 19%
- Economists Expecting No Change
- 28%
- Key Risks
- High debt levels, inflated asset prices, geopolitical tensions, trade disputes
- AI Impact
- Boosts productivity but benefits unevenly distributed
- Safe-Haven Assets
- Gold
- Global Growth Rate
- 3% annual rate over the next six months
- U.S. Budget Deficit
- 6% of GDP
- Global Public Debt
- Exceed 100% of global GDP by 2029