Archive · 25 Dec 2025
UAE's Oil Ambitions May Strain OPEC
The UAE and Saudi Arabia are both part of OPEC, a group of countries that work together to control oil prices.
The UAE needs oil prices to be around $50 per barrel to balance its budget, while Saudi Arabia needs them to be around $90 per barrel.
The UAE is planning to increase its oil production a lot by 2027, but OPEC hasn't updated its rules to match this growth.
This could cause some tension within the group because the UAE and Saudi Arabia have different needs and goals for oil.
The UAE requires oil prices at $50 per barrel to balance its budget, while Saudi Arabia needs $90 per barrel.
The UAE plans to invest $62bn in oil production by 2027, increasing capacity to 5m barrels per day from 3.6m in 2021.
The UAE's OPEC quota has not kept pace with its production growth, leading to a 300,000 barrel per day increase over 18 months.
OPEC+ postponed a comprehensive quota revision until 2027, originally scheduled for this year.
The differing oil price needs and production targets of the UAE and Saudi Arabia may cause tension within OPEC.
- Who
- UAE and Saudi Arabia
- What
- Potential strain in OPEC+ due to differing oil price needs and production targets
- When
- Ongoing, with a quota revision postponed until 2027
- Where
- Middle East, specifically UAE and Saudi Arabia
- Why
- UAE's lower oil price threshold and higher production capacity compared to Saudi Arabia
- UAE oil price threshold
- $50 per barrel
- Saudi Arabia oil price threshold
- $90 per barrel
- UAE investment in oil production
- $62bn by 2027
- UAE oil production capacity (2021)
- 3.6m barrels per day
- UAE target oil production capacity
- 5m barrels per day
- UAE OPEC quota increase
- 300,000 barrels per day over 18 months
- OPEC+ quota revision postponement
- Until 2027