Archive · 11 Sep 2026
IMF Welcomes India’s 7.8% Q1 FY27 Growth Amid Data Debate
India said its economy grew by 7.8 percent from April to June in the first quarter of FY27.
This was faster than the IMF and many other observers expected.
The IMF said strong services and exports helped drive the result.
It also said India’s economy remained resilient even as energy prices created pressure.
The IMF is watching how higher oil prices affect India because India imports energy.
India changed some of the data series used to calculate GDP.
The IMF welcomed those changes but encouraged India to keep improving its statistics.
Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg questioned whether revisions to older figures made the growth rate look stronger.
This means the growth result was welcomed, but the way it was calculated remains debated.
India reported 7.8% real GDP growth in Q1 FY27, covering April-June, above IMF and consensus expectations.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack attributed the upside surprise to stronger-than-expected services activity and exports.
The IMF said the result showed resilience despite the energy price shock and reaffirmed India’s role as a global growth engine.
India’s latest GDP release introduced a new industrial production index and producer price index series intended to improve estimates.
Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg questioned the figures, citing revisions to previous-year GDP and concerns about calculation methods.
- Who
- India, the International Monetary Fund, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack, and former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg.
- What
- India reported 7.8% real GDP growth in Q1 FY27; the IMF welcomed the result and statistical changes, while Garg questioned the underlying calculations.
- When
- The growth covered April-June in FY27, and Kozack discussed it at a Thursday press briefing.
- Where
- India; the IMF comments were made at a press briefing in the context of India’s economic data.
- Why
- The growth exceeded expectations, helped by services and exports, while GDP revisions and methodological changes prompted questions about data transparency.
Growth and IMF Support
Methodology and Data Concerns
Economic performance
Growth and IMF Support
The IMF said 7.8% growth exceeded expectations, was supported by services and exports, and showed resilience despite the energy price shock.
Methodology and Data Concerns
Critics questioned whether revisions underlying the reported figure made India’s performance appear stronger, without disputing that 7.8% was the reported rate.
Reliability of GDP estimates
Growth and IMF Support
The IMF welcomed the new industrial production and producer price index series, saying they should improve GDP estimates.
Methodology and Data Concerns
Subhash Chandra Garg argued that revising the previous year’s current GDP from Rs 86 lakh crore to Rs 80 lakh crore affected the comparison and said growth without the revision would have been about 2.6% at current prices.
Oil-price impact
Growth and IMF Support
The IMF said India had shown considerable resilience because the energy shock occurred while the country was in a stronger economic position.
Methodology and Data Concerns
The IMF also noted that higher oil prices can pressure energy importers’ balance of payments and fiscal positions, and said it was monitoring the effects on India.
- Reported growth
- 7.8% real GDP growth in Q1 FY27, covering April-June
- Real GDP estimate
- Rs 81.36 lakh crore in Q1 FY27, compared with Rs 75.46 lakh crore in Q1 FY26
- Earlier projection
- The Reserve Bank of India had projected 7% growth for Q1 FY27
- Growth drivers
- Stronger-than-expected services activity and exports
- Statistical changes
- The release introduced a new index of industrial production and a new producer price index series
- Data criticism
- Subhash Chandra Garg cited a revision in previous-year current GDP from Rs 86 lakh crore to Rs 80 lakh crore
- Next IMF forecast
- The IMF said its new India forecast would be announced with the October World Economic Outlook
