Archive · 19 Aug 2025
Fitch: Ukrainian Refugees Will Support Polish Economy, Even Post-Ceasefire
Many Ukrainians fled to Poland after the war began.
They've helped Poland's economy by working and boosting growth.
Even if the war ends, experts think most Ukrainians will stay in Poland and keep helping.
Poland's government wants to reduce its debt, but it's tricky because of spending on things like social programs and military costs.
Experts at Fitch are watching closely because of the impact of refugees on the country's finances.
They expect Poland's economy to keep growing.
Fitch Ratings expects Ukrainian refugees to continue supporting the Polish labor market.
Approximately 1 million Ukrainian refugees currently reside in Poland, bolstering its economy.
Fitch forecasts Poland's economic growth at 3% in 2025-2026 and 3.1% in 2027.
Poland aims to reduce its fiscal deficit below 3% by 2028, but faces challenges.
Fitch's rating review for Poland is scheduled for September 5.
- Who
- Fitch Ratings analysts and Ukrainian refugees.
- What
- Fitch Ratings believes Ukrainian refugees will continue supporting Poland's economy, and the nation's fiscal outlook.
- When
- Fitch's rating review for Poland is scheduled for September 5. Forecasts for Poland's economic growth are for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027.
- Where
- Poland.
- Why
- To stabilize public finances and maintain economic growth in Poland.
Government Aims
Fitch Projections
Economic Growth Forecast
Government Aims
Government expects 3.4%, 3.5%, and 3.0% economic growth respectively for 2025, 2026, and 2027.
Fitch Projections
Fitch forecasts 3% growth for 2025 and 2026, and 3.1% for 2027.
- Refugee Population
- Approximately 1 million Ukrainians
- Economic Growth Forecast (2025-2027)
- 3%, 3%, and 3.1% respectively
- Poland's Fiscal Deficit (2024)
- 6.6% of GDP
- Deficit Target
- Below 3% by 2028
- Poland's Public Debt (2028/2029)
- Around 65% of GDP