Archive · 30 Nov 2025
India's exports face climate and cost risks
India's businesses that sell things to other countries, like aluminium, iron, and steel, are in big trouble because of climate change and high costs.
If India doesn't do anything about it, these businesses could lose a lot of money and might not be able to keep working.
The European Union has rules that will make it harder and more expensive for India to sell these things there.
Climate change can also hurt small businesses that supply parts to bigger companies.
This can make it hard for big companies to get the things they need.
Many big companies in India are starting to worry about this problem, but not all of them are doing something about it yet.
Also, the cost of making aluminium in India is too high, which makes it hard for small businesses to compete with other countries.
If India makes it cheaper to import aluminium, small businesses can grow and create more jobs.
India's export-driven businesses in sectors like aluminium, iron, and steel face increased risks due to climate inaction and rising input costs.
Climate-induced extreme events could erode 4.5% of India's GDP by 2030 and 6.4% to over 10% by the end of the century.
The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) could impact USD 7.7 billion of India's exports to the EU.
Climate risks could put 5% to 25% of 2050 EBITDA at risk for global businesses.
MSMEs, which contribute 45% of India's total export value, are particularly vulnerable to climate shocks and CBAM.
- Who
- Indian export-driven businesses, especially in aluminium, iron, and steel sectors, and MSMEs
- What
- Climate inaction and rising input costs are increasing risks to profits, operations, and long-term viability
- When
- Published on November 30, 2025
- Where
- India
- Why
- Due to climate-induced extreme events, international regulatory shocks, and high input costs
- GDP at risk by 2030
- 4.5%
- GDP at risk by 2100
- 6.4% to over 10%
- Impacted export sectors
- Aluminium, iron, steel
- EU export impact
- USD 7.7 billion (10-11%)
- EBITDA at risk by 2050
- 5% to 25%
- MSME export contribution
- 45% of total export value
- MSME CBAM exposure
- 20-30% of exports
- Large companies assessing climate risk
- 40%
- Domestic aluminium demand by 2030
- 8.3 million tonnes
- Current domestic aluminium demand
- 5.3 million tonnes
- Number of aluminium MSMEs in India
- 3,500