Archive · 23 Sep 2026
India projected to see 16,000 extra heat deaths
A new study says India may have many more heat-related deaths over six months.
The period studied is September 2026 through February 2027.
Researchers connect the risk mainly to a strong El Niño weather event.
El Niño warms parts of the Pacific Ocean and can make some places hotter and drier.
The study estimates about 15,800 extra heat deaths in India compared with a normal year.
Southern India may be especially affected because its winter temperatures are already warm.
Northern India usually has cooler winters, so the increase there may be smaller.
The researchers say the warning gives countries time to prepare before the extra deaths happen.
India could record roughly 15,800 additional heat-related deaths from September 2026 through February 2027.
The projection is linked largely to a Super El Niño episode expected to raise global land temperatures 1.2°C above normal.
India may experience 44% more extremely hot days than in a normal year.
About 7,400 additional Indian heat deaths are projected between December 2026 and February 2027.
The report ranks India fourth globally for projected heat deaths, behind Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan.
- Who
- Researchers from the Climate Impact Lab, including Michael Greenstone, Tamma Carleton, Genevieve Maricle, and Emily Grover-Kopec, assessed the risks to India and other countries.
- What
- A study projects roughly 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India during a six-month period.
- When
- September 2026 through February 2027, with about 7,400 additional deaths projected from December 2026 through February 2027.
- Where
- India, with southern regions identified as particularly vulnerable; the study also estimates effects worldwide.
- Why
- A Super El Niño is expected to raise temperatures and produce more extremely hot days, while El Niño can suppress the Indian monsoon.
- Projected Indian excess deaths
- Approximately 15,800 between September 2026 and February 2027
- Winter-period projection
- About 7,400 additional deaths between December 2026 and February 2027
- Expected temperature increase
- Global land temperatures projected to be 1.2°C above normal
- Extremely hot days
- India is projected to experience 44% more extremely hot days than in a normal year
- Global excess deaths
- About 451,000 deaths tied to the current El Niño episode
- India’s global ranking
- Fourth among countries for projected heat deaths, behind Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan
- Study source
- Climate Impact Lab, a research initiative of the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute