Archive · 19 Aug 2025
Chinese Economist Predicts Yuan Could Strengthen Against US Dollar
A top economist in China thinks the yuan might get stronger compared to the US dollar, maybe even past 7.
This could happen if the US economy weakens, if interest rates go down, or if people trust the dollar less.
A new trade deal between the US and China could also help.
Even though the dollar has become weaker, the yuan hasn't gotten much stronger, which makes some people think China might be trying to weaken its currency.
However, the economist says China's main goal isn't to make the yuan weaker but to keep the value steady and avoid big changes that could cause problems for businesses.
They want to focus on helping the Chinese economy grow and create jobs.
A top Chinese economist suggests the yuan could strengthen past 7 against the US dollar.
Potential factors include US economic weakness, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a decline in dollar confidence.
A potential US-China trade deal could boost sentiment for Chinese assets.
Despite the dollar's decline, the yuan has underperformed, leading to speculation about policy intent.
The economist states China's goal isn't currency weakening, but to prevent volatility and support financial stability.
- Who
- Guan Tao, a global chief economist at Bank of China International Securities.
- What
- A Chinese economist suggests the yuan may strengthen against the US dollar.
- When
- Recently, as of the article's publication.
- Where
- China and the United States.
- Why
- Due to potential factors like US economic weakness, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the prospect of a trade deal.
Optimistic View
Cautious View
Trade Deal Impact
Optimistic View
Some institutions like Deutsche Bank AG, UBS Group AG and the Toronto-Dominion Bank are optimistic that the US and China will reach a trade deal which will boost the yuan.
Cautious View
The economist Guan Tao cautions that markets may be too complacent about downside risks. Tough negotiations could still reignite frictions and put the currency back under pressure.
- Economist
- Guan Tao
- Institution
- Bank of China International Securities
- Yuan vs. Dollar
- Potential for strengthening past 7
- Dollar Decline
- Approximately 8% this year
- Yuan Gain
- 1.6% this year
- Offshore Yuan
- Last reached levels stronger than 7 per dollar in September 2024