2 weeks ago
Defence Maker HAL Receives Mixed Ratings, Divergent Share Price Targets
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, or HAL, is a company in India that builds airplanes for the country's defence forces.
People who give investing advice, called brokerages, study companies like HAL to tell investors whether to buy their shares.
Some experts are very happy with HAL and say 'buy' its stock.
Other experts say 'wait' or 'hold' because they worry the company's profits might slow down.
HAL has a big pile of orders worth Rs 2.5 lakh crore, which is a huge amount of money.
But one expert thinks that pile is at its biggest and will shrink over the next few years.
Another expert was worried because HAL's recent deliveries did not come as fast as expected.
A different expert said HAL did better than expected in its latest quarter and raised the price they think the stock is worth.
So, even though most experts like the company, they disagree on how much its stock should cost.
That is why some say buy and others say hold.
HAL drew mixed brokerage ratings, with a consensus 'Buy' but targets ranging from Rs 4,550 to Rs 6,314.
Nomura, which called HAL its top defence-sector pick, raised its target to Rs 6,314 after a Q1 beat.
Anand Rathi retained its Buy rating with a Rs 5,431 target, citing improving execution and September Mk-1A testing.
Nuvama downgraded HAL to 'Hold' at Rs 5,040 over weaker-than-expected product-led execution.
InCred Equities kept a Hold at Rs 4,550, flagging a cyclical peak in HAL's Rs 2.5 lakh crore backlog and its Rs 15,000 crore capex plan.
- Who
- Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), the defence maker, and brokerages InCred Equities, Anand Rathi, Nuvama, and Nomura.
- What
- Brokerages issued diverging share price targets and ratings for HAL, ranging from Buy to Hold, with targets between Rs 4,550 and Rs 6,314.
- Where
- India's defence sector, as covered by Indian and foreign brokerages.
- When
- Not explicitly dated; the views follow Q1 results and a 35 per cent share rally since April.
- Why
- Because brokerages differ over HAL's earnings quality, execution momentum, margins, and valuation.
Bullish (Buy)
Cautious (Hold)
Share price upside
Bullish (Buy)
Nomura raised its target to Rs 6,314, calling HAL its top defence pick and expecting a 19 per cent PAT CAGR, while Anand Rathi targets Rs 5,431 on improving execution.
Cautious (Hold)
InCred sees limited upside with a Rs 4,550 target, and Nuvama downgraded to Hold at Rs 5,040 after the stock breached its previous target.
Execution and growth outlook
Bullish (Buy)
Nomura says HAL beat estimates on all fronts in Q1 with healthy visibility led by the manufacturing book; Anand Rathi sees Mk-1A testing and deliveries as key catalysts.
Cautious (Hold)
Nuvama points to weaker-than-expected product-led execution, while InCred expects margins, other income, and cash flow to roll over as capex ramps up.
Key facts
- Rating consensus
- Buy, though InCred Equities and Nuvama rate it Hold
- Brokerage target prices
- Rs 4,550 (InCred), Rs 5,040 (Nuvama), Rs 5,431 (Anand Rathi), Rs 6,314 (Nomura)
- Order backlog
- Rs 2.5 lakh crore (seen by InCred as a cyclical peak for 2-3 years)
- Capex plan
- Rs 15,000 crore over 3-4 years
- Stock rally
- 35 per cent since April
- Valuation
- 35.9x FY27 EPS of Rs 4,960 (Anand Rathi); 33x/30x FY27E/FY28E EPS (Nuvama)
- Key near-term catalyst
- Mk-1A testing in September and delivery milestones
- Nomura estimates
- 19 per cent PAT CAGR over FY26-29F, target raised to Rs 6,314 from Rs 6,040
Quotes
InCred Equities
Equity research analyst at InCred Equities
“"That tailwind is turning around with capex ramping and product mix shifting - we see margins, other income and cash flow all rolling over, not to mention the current backlog of Rs 2.5 lakh crore being at a cyclical peak for next 2-3 years. Maintain HOLD on HAL (Target: Rs 4,550) as we believe higher product mix should trump margins going ahead while Rs 15,000 crore capex plan over 3-4 years shall weigh on cash accruals and working capital,"”
businesstoday.in
“"While much of the re-rating is captured ahead of deliveries, improving execution support our positive view. Retain Buy; Mk-1A testing in September and delivery milestones are the key near-term catalysts,"”
businesstoday.in









