Archive · 20 Sep 2025
Canadian Dollar's 'Mini-Dollar' Status Puts It at Risk
Imagine the Canadian dollar, the loonie, is like a mini-me of the US dollar.
When the US dollar goes up or down, the loonie often does the same.
RBC says this close connection is getting stronger, even though Canada trades with the US less than before.
If the US dollar gets weaker, the loonie might also get weaker.
Right now, the US dollar is down against currencies like the Euro and Yen, and the loonie has also gone down a bit.
If traders start to see the loonie as just a reflection of the US dollar, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The loonie's tight link to the US dollar risks it falling against other currencies.
The correlation between the two currencies is at its highest since the early 2000s.
The loonie tends to mirror the greenback's movements against other major currencies.
The US dollar is down versus the euro, yen, and loonie so far in 2025.
About 75% of Canada's trade in goods is still with the US, but it is down from past levels.
- Who
- RBC Capital Markets
- What
- The Canadian dollar's link to the US dollar risks the loonie's value.
- When
- As of Friday.
- Where
- N/A
- Why
- The increasing linkage between the Canadian dollar and the US dollar could cause the loonie to decline if the greenback weakens.
- Main Point
- Canadian dollar increasingly tied to the US dollar.
- Currency Pair
- USD/CAD
- RBC Strategist
- Daria Parkhomenko
- Trade with US
- 75% of Canada's total trade is with the US (July data)
- US Dollar vs Euro
- Down 13% in 2025
- US Dollar vs Yen
- Down 6% in 2025
- US Dollar vs Loonie
- Down 4% in 2025