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Nomura Cuts Nifty Target to 24,000 as US Yields Rise
Nomura is a brokerage that studies companies and markets.
It lowered its target for India's Nifty 50 stock index to 24,000 by March 2027.
It did this mainly because interest rates on government bonds around the world have risen, which can make stocks seem less valuable.
Nomura still sees possible opportunities in banks, technology services, auto-parts makers, engineering businesses, and drug companies.
It is more careful about companies that sell many consumer goods, because demand may be weaker outside cities.
The brokerage also says companies could face pressure on profits and costs.
It advises choosing businesses carefully and paying attention to their prices.
Its forecast is an estimate, not a promise that the market will reach that level.
Nomura lowered its March 2027 Nifty 50 target to 24,000, using a 17-times forward earnings multiple instead of 18.5 times.
The target is based on FY28 earnings per share of 1,410 and implies a 7% potential return from the Nifty level cited on October 1, 2026.
Nomura linked the lower valuation multiple primarily to higher global bond yields; the India-US 10-year yield gap narrowed to 190 basis points.
The brokerage favors financials, IT services, auto ancillaries, engineering and manufacturing, capital goods, and pharmaceuticals, while remaining cautious on consumption.
Nomura expects earnings growth and margins to face pressure, and recommends selective, valuation-conscious stock picking rather than chasing growth narratives.
- Who
- Nomura, the brokerage issuing the India equity strategy assessment.
- What
- Nomura cut its March 2027 Nifty 50 target to 24,000 and outlined preferred and cautious sectors.
- Where
- India's equity market; the assessment also cites rising US Treasury yields.
- When
- The target is for March 2027; the stated potential return uses the Nifty level on October 1, 2026.
- Why
- Nomura reduced its valuation multiple mainly because global bond yields have risen, while citing possible earnings and margin pressures.
Nomura's supportive view
Risks and cautious view
Market correction and longer-term growth
Nomura's supportive view
Nomura says the lower target multiple mainly reflects higher yields and does not assume geopolitical or technological changes will permanently damage India's long-term growth.
Risks and cautious view
The brokerage says the latest correction also reflects structural concerns about geopolitical realignment and technological disruption, alongside policy and regulatory risks.
Sector opportunities
Nomura's supportive view
Nomura sees valuation support in financials and IT services, and favors auto ancillaries, engineering and manufacturing, capital goods, and pharmaceuticals.
Risks and cautious view
It is cautious on consumption, citing potentially softer rural demand, pressured margins, and high valuation multiples in consumer categories.
Earnings outlook
Nomura's supportive view
Nomura expects BSE 200-plus earnings to grow 8% in the remaining nine months of FY27 and 18% in FY28.
Risks and cautious view
It says those FY28 expectations depend on favorable assumptions and warns that estimates could face mid-single-digit cuts if investment, manufacturing, and consumer sentiment do not strengthen.
Key facts
- Nifty 50 target
- 24,000 for March 2027; calculated target before rounding is 23,970.
- Target valuation
- 17 times one-year forward earnings, down from 18.5 times.
- Earnings basis
- FY28 earnings per share of 1,410.
- Potential return
- 7%, based on the Nifty level cited on October 1, 2026.
- India-US yield gap
- The 10-year yield differential narrowed to 190 basis points, its lowest in 22 years.
- Equity outflows
- Nomura reported financial-year-to-date net foreign institutional investor outflows of $12.5 billion.
- Preferred sectors
- Financials, IT services, auto ancillaries, engineering and manufacturing, capital goods, and pharmaceuticals.
- Cautious sector
- Consumption.
Quotes
Nomura
Brokerage whose India equity strategy and market outlook are described in the article.
“We reduce our target multiple to 17.0x 1-year forward from 18.5x previously, and assign a March 2027 target of Rs 24,000 for the Nifty50. The reduction in target multiple factors in higher yields. We do not assume structural headwinds from geopolitics and technological changes to have long-term impact on growth.”
financialexpress.com
“We continue to recommend a bottom-up approach from a medium- to long-term perspective. Against the backdrop of hardening in yields, our stance prefers stocks that present value, and we recommend being selective in growth. We recommend being valuation conscious and avoiding chasing the narrative.”
financialexpress.com
Sources
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