Archive · 13 Aug 2026
Oil futures slide as OPEC, IEA forecast 2026 demand drop
Oil is one of the most important fuels in the world — it helps cars, planes and ships move.
Every day, grown-ups around the world buy and sell oil, and the price can go up or down.
On Thursday morning, the price of oil went down a little.
Two big groups of experts, OPEC and the IEA, released reports saying that in 2026, the world probably won't need as much oil as expected.
OPEC thinks demand will still grow a little bit, but the IEA thinks it will shrink by a lot.
One big reason is that the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea path that many oil ships use, is closed.
Another reason is that fuel prices are very high, so people and companies are trying to use less fuel.
President Donald Trump said on his website Truth Social that the US Navy is blockading the strait and that America has "total control" over it.
But some experts say the US and Iran are still stuck in a standoff over the strait.
When big world events like this happen, they can change the price of the oil we use every day.
Crude oil futures fell on Thursday morning after OPEC and the IEA published August reports forecasting weaker oil demand in 2026.
OPEC forecast global oil demand growth of 0.58 million barrels a day in 2026, a slight downward revision from last month's assessment.
The IEA forecast a 2026 demand decline of 1.6 million barrels a day, citing the Strait of Hormuz closure and elevated fuel prices.
US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz via a naval blockade.
ING analysts said Brent ended Wednesday largely flat amid a US-Iran deadlock, and a drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk port spared oil terminals.
- Who
- OPEC and the IEA, whose August reports forecast 2026 oil demand, and US President Donald Trump, who posted about US control of the Strait of Hormuz.
- What
- Crude oil futures fell on Thursday after OPEC and the IEA issued downbeat 2026 oil demand forecasts, while Trump claimed total US control of the Strait of Hormuz.
- When
- Thursday morning, August 13, 2026.
- Where
- Global commodity markets, including the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in India; the Strait of Hormuz; and Russia's Novorossiysk port.
- Why
- Forecasts of weaker oil demand in 2026, driven mainly by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices.
Growth Outlook
Decline Outlook
2026 oil demand forecast
Growth Outlook
OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 0.58 million barrels a day in 2026, with only a slight downward revision from last month's assessment.
Decline Outlook
The IEA expects world oil demand to decline by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026, 510,000 barrels a day more than its previous estimate.
Control of the Strait of Hormuz
Growth Outlook
President Trump says the US has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran can do nothing about it.
Decline Outlook
ING commodity analysts say there are little in the way of fresh developments between the US and Iran, with both sides remaining in a deadlock.
- October Brent futures
- $88.79, down 0.21%
- September WTI futures
- $82.96, down 0.37%
- OPEC 2026 demand outlook
- Growth of 0.58 million barrels a day, slightly revised down
- IEA 2026 demand outlook
- Decline of 1.6 million barrels a day, 510,000 bpd more than prior estimate
- Strait of Hormuz
- Closed; US naval blockade described as a "Wall of Steel"
- IEA contraction trend
- Easing from 4.9 million bpd in Q2 2026 to 2.8 million bpd in Q3 2026
- August aluminium futures (MCX)
- ₹350.20, down 0.77%
- Report date
- August 13, 2026