Archive · 4 Jan 2026
Trump's Tariffs Less Impactful Than Feared, Study Finds
A new study by economists Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman found that the tariffs announced by President Donald Trump's administration had a smaller impact on prices and trade than many people expected.
While the official tariff rates were very high, the actual rates were much lower due to delays, exemptions, and other factors.
The study also found that when tariffs were collected, the costs were mostly paid by American businesses and consumers, not foreign sellers.
Another expert, Sajjid Chinoy, agreed that the tariffs were not as strong as initially feared, partly because of exemptions for things like electronics and medicines.
He also noted that the global economy grew stronger than expected, which helped soften the impact of the tariffs.
Statutory tariff rates on US imports rose to 27% by September 2025, the highest in over a century.
Actual tariff rates were about half of the statutory rates, around 13.5%, due to exemptions and other factors.
Tariff costs were largely borne by US importers and consumers, with nearly complete pass-through to import prices.
Exemptions for electronics, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals significantly reduced the effective tariff rate.
The actual tariff rate based on collected revenues was about 10%, much lower than the announced rates.
- Who
- US President Donald Trump's administration, economists Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman, Chief India Economist Sajjid Chinoy
- What
- The impact of Trump's tariffs on US imports and prices
- When
- As of September 2025, with data from 2018-19 also referenced
- Where
- United States
- Why
- To understand the discrepancy between announced and actual tariff rates and their economic impact
- Statutory Tariff Rate
- 27% as of September 2025
- Actual Tariff Rate
- About 13.5% (half of statutory rate) as of September 2025
- Tariff Pass-Through to US Import Prices
- 94% in 2025, 80% in 2018-19
- Effective Tariff Rate (Calculated)
- 17% (down from 3% in 2024)
- Actual Tariff Rate (Based on Revenues)
- 10% (up from 3% in 2024)
- Authors of the Study
- Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman
- Key Exemptions
- Electronics, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals