Archive · 13 Aug 2026
Rupee seen appreciating to 94/$ by fiscal end: Kotak
Money from different countries has different values.
The Indian rupee is one kind of money, and the US dollar is another.
Right now, one US dollar costs about 95 rupees.
Some experts think the rupee could get a little stronger, so one dollar might cost about 94 rupees.
This could happen by the end of India's financial year.
The price of oil matters a lot for this.
India buys oil from other countries and has to pay for it in dollars.
If oil is cheap, India does not need as many dollars, and the rupee can get stronger.
If oil prices go up a lot, the rupee might get weaker instead.
So the future of the rupee depends heavily on what happens with oil prices.
The Indian rupee is currently trading near 95.40 per US dollar and is expected to appreciate towards 94 by fiscal year-end.
Kotak Securities' base case assumes Brent crude averages in the low-to-mid $80 per barrel range, with steady foreign inflows and central bank reserves.
Every $10 move in Brent adds roughly $13-15 billion to India's annual import bill, about 0.3-0.4 per cent of GDP.
Key risks cited are a durable Brent move above $110 on West Asia escalation, tighter US rates, portfolio flow variability, and the special deposit window closing in September.
If West Asia escalates again, the rupee could hold a 96-97 range; earlier this year crude touched $120-126 per barrel.
Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities, made the forecast.
- Who
- Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities.
- What
- A forecast that the Indian rupee will gradually appreciate from about 95.40 to 94 per US dollar by fiscal year-end.
- When
- By the end of the fiscal year, with the rupee currently trading near 95.40 per dollar.
- Where
- India, with the forecast reported from New Delhi.
- Why
- Expected lower crude oil prices, steady foreign inflows, and supportive central bank reserves are seen keeping the currency well anchored.
- Current USD/INR rate
- ~95.40
- Base-case forecast
- 94 per US dollar by fiscal year-end
- Risk-case forecast
- 96-97 range if West Asia escalation lifts crude and tightens US rates
- Brent assumption
- Low-to-mid $80 per barrel average
- Import bill sensitivity
- $13-15 billion per $10 Brent move (~0.3-0.4% of GDP)
- Earlier crude spike
- $120-126 per barrel earlier this year
- Analyst
- Anindya Banerjee, Kotak Securities
- Key monitored factors
- Brent above $110, US rate tightening, portfolio flows, September deposit-window closure