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India's October Weather Turns Drier, But Winter Rain May Help
India had less rain than usual during the main rainy season.
The country received 13% less rain than normal between June and September.
October is expected to be warmer and drier in many places.
Some eastern, southern and northeastern areas may still receive rain early in October.
Parts of northwest India could get normal or above-normal rain from October to December.
The northeast monsoon is expected to reach southern India around October 15-21.
This rain is especially important for Tamil Nadu and nearby areas because it supplies a large share of their yearly rainfall.
The India Meteorological Department has not given one exact date for winter to begin across the country.
India’s southwest monsoon ended on September 30 with a 13% rainfall deficit, receiving 759.4 mm against a normal 868.6 mm.
The India Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal October rainfall and above-normal maximum temperatures across much of the country.
Rain is still expected in parts of eastern, southern and northeastern India during October’s first week, with isolated heavy showers possible.
The October-December outlook indicates normal to above-normal rainfall in parts of northwest India, including Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir.
The northeast monsoon is expected to reach southern India around October 15-21, bringing normal seasonal rainfall to several southern regions.
- Who
- The India Meteorological Department and people in regions affected by India’s seasonal rainfall.
- What
- India is expected to experience a warmer, drier October after a deficient southwest monsoon, with some later rainfall relief in northern and southern regions.
- Where
- Across India, with notable forecasts for northwest India, southern India, and eastern, northeastern and central areas.
- When
- The southwest monsoon ended September 30; October is forecast to be drier, and the northeast monsoon is expected around October 15-21.
- Why
- Strong El Nino conditions contributed to the monsoon deficit, while the seasonal shift to the northeast monsoon may bring rain to selected regions.
Key facts
- Monsoon rainfall
- India received 759.4 mm from June through September, compared with a normal 868.6 mm.
- Seasonal deficit
- The southwest monsoon ended with a 13% rainfall deficit.
- October rainfall forecast
- Rainfall is expected to be below 85% of the long-period average.
- October temperature forecast
- Maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal across most of India.
- Northwest outlook
- Parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir may receive normal to above-normal rain from October to December.
- Northeast monsoon timing
- The northeast monsoon is expected to arrive over southern India around October 15-21.
- Southern rainfall dependence
- Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal receive about 48% of their annual rainfall from the northeast monsoon.
Sources
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