Archive · 2 Sep 2026
Texas Senate Race Becomes Money Test for Trump’s GOP
Texas is choosing a senator in an election scheduled for November 3.
Republican Ken Paxton is running against Democrat James Talarico.
Republicans usually win statewide elections in Texas, so they expected this seat to be relatively safe.
However, polls show the race could be close.
Talarico has raised much more campaign money and has more cash available than Paxton.
Republican groups are beginning to spend money to help Paxton.
Donald Trump supported Paxton in the Republican primary, making the contest important for Trump’s party.
The election will show whether Republicans can keep the seat and how much national Republican money reaches Texas.
Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in Texas’s November 3 Senate election.
Talarico has reported a major fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Paxton.
A July Texas poll showed Talarico leading Paxton 45% to 40%, while a June New York Times/Siena poll found a 47%-47% tie.
A Ted Cruz-linked super PAC planned more than $1.7 million in advertising supporting Paxton.
The race matters to Republicans because Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide in more than 30 years.
- Who
- Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are competing for the Senate seat; Donald Trump and Republican political groups are involved in the broader contest.
- What
- The Texas Senate race has become a competitive election and a major fundraising and spending battle.
- When
- The election is scheduled for November 3; early voting is scheduled to begin October 19. Paxton defeated John Cornyn in a May 26 Republican runoff.
- Where
- Texas, including advertising markets in Houston and Dallas.
- Why
- Republicans want to retain a Senate seat in a state they have controlled in statewide elections for more than 30 years, while Democrats see an opportunity to win a major statewide race.
Democratic View
Republican View
Race competitiveness
Democratic View
Democrats argue that Talarico’s fundraising, populist message, Trump’s approval ratings and Paxton’s political baggage create an opportunity to win Texas.
Republican View
Republicans expect voters to reunite behind Paxton after the primary and believe the party’s established statewide strength can preserve the seat.
Polling evidence
Democratic View
Democrats can point to the Texas Public Opinion Research poll showing Talarico ahead among likely voters, independents, moderates, Black voters and Latino voters.
Republican View
Conservatives questioned that poll because its director, Luke Warford, has Democratic political connections; Republicans also point to the New York Times/Siena tie and surveys showing Republican consolidation behind Paxton.
Campaign spending
Democratic View
Talarico’s campaign has built a substantially larger cash reserve, creating an early financial advantage in advertising and voter outreach.
Republican View
Republican groups say national support can still be deployed, including money from the Republican National Committee, Trump’s political operation and MAGA Inc., though the timing and amount remained unclear.
- Candidates
- Republican Ken Paxton versus Democrat James Talarico.
- Election date
- November 3; early voting is scheduled to begin October 19.
- Talarico fundraising
- His campaign reported approximately $68.6 million raised and $47 million spent between September 8, 2025, and June 30, 2026, with about $21.5 million cash on hand.
- Reported fundraising discrepancy
- Another FEC-based account cited $65.9 million in contributions, $47 million in spending, and more than $21.5 million cash on hand for the same period.
- Polling
- A Texas Public Opinion Research poll conducted July 15-17 showed Talarico ahead 45% to 40%; a June New York Times/Siena poll showed a 47%-47% tie.
- Republican advertising
- A super PAC linked to Senator Ted Cruz planned to spend more than $1.7 million on advertising for Paxton.
- Republican primary
- Donald Trump backed Paxton, who defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff.