Archive · 3 Oct 2026
Poll Shows Lula Lead Narrowing Ahead of Brazil Vote
A poll asked people in Brazil which presidential candidate they supported.
It showed Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro, but by less than in an earlier poll.
For votes counted as valid, Lula had 47.8% and Bolsonaro had 42.1%.
The poll also looked at a possible second round between the two candidates.
In that scenario, Lula had 47.3% and Bolsonaro had 43.1%.
The report gives two different first-round sets of figures, so they should be understood as separate poll results or scenarios.
MDA spoke with 2,007 people between September 30 and October 2.
The poll’s margin of error was 2.2 percentage points.
A CNT/MDA poll found Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s first-round presidential vote, with a narrower lead than in a previous survey.
For projected valid votes, Lula received 47.8% support and Bolsonaro 42.1%.
In a likely runoff, Lula was at 47.3% and Bolsonaro at 43.1%; the previous survey had them at 47.3% and 40%, respectively.
The report also cites a September 15 poll with Lula at 40.5%, Bolsonaro at 30.4%, Augusto Cury at 6%, Ronaldo Caiado at 3%, and Renan Santos at 2.7%; a separate first-round scenario gives Lula 43.1% and Bolsonaro 38%.
MDA surveyed 2,007 people from September 30 to October 2, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points; a runoff was scheduled for October 25 if no candidate won over half of valid votes.
- Who
- Brazilian presidential candidates Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro.
- What
- A CNT/MDA poll showed Lula leading Bolsonaro in first-round and likely runoff voting scenarios, with a narrower runoff lead than in the previous survey.
- When
- The poll was conducted September 30 to October 2; the report was dated October 3 and said the first-round vote was Sunday.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- The poll measured voter support ahead of Brazil’s first-round presidential vote.
- Pollster
- MDA, for CNT
- Survey dates
- September 30 to October 2
- Sample size
- 2,007 people
- Margin of error
- 2.2 percentage points
- Projected valid votes
- Lula 47.8%; Bolsonaro 42.1%
- Likely runoff
- Lula 47.3%; Bolsonaro 43.1%
- Previous runoff poll
- Lula 47.3%; Bolsonaro 40%
- Possible runoff date
- October 25, if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid first-round votes